In the News - 13. DYDX Unlock

    DYDX Unlock

    DYDX holders are bracing for a massive event next month, as 105% of the circulating supply will be distributed to investors and team members. \n

    Have holders begun preparing for this massive unlock? If so, what actions are they taking to prepare? How do you expect the market to react in the weeks leading up to and following the unlock? Back up your assertions with data.

    Introduction

    DYDX is a decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol that allows users to trade leveraged tokens on Ethereum blockchain. It utilizes a decentralized lending pool to provide users with the ability to trade tokenized assets at up to 5x leverage, and allows for margin trading and borrowing without the need for centralized intermediaries. Additionally, it allows users to trade tokenized versions of derivatives such as options, futures and swaps.

    DYDX is the native token of the DYDX protocol. It serves multiple purposes in the DYDX ecosystem such as:

    1. Staking: DXDY holders can stake their tokens to earn a share of the trading fees generated on the DYDX exchange.
    2. Governance: DXDY holders can also vote on protocol upgrades and changes through the DYDX governance mechanism.
    3. Liquidity provision: DXDY is used as collateral for leveraged trading and liquidity provision in the DYDX exchange.
    4. Borrowing: DXDY can also be borrowed as collateral for margin trading on the DYDX exchange.
    5. Token incentives: DXDY is also used as an incentive for liquidity providers in the DYDX exchange.

    It's important to note that the exact use cases and functions of the DXDY token can vary depending on the updates and development of the protocol.

    Method

    In preparation for a huge event next month where 105% of the circulating supply will be handed to investors and team members, I have attempted to provide thorough information regarding the pricing, transfer, swap, and flow activity of the DXDY token in this Dashboard. Gaining insight into how holders and the market are reacting in the weeks leading up to and following the unlock will help you make educated guesses regarding the future value of the DXDY token.

    For this propose, in the first step it defined holders, those who holed their tokens until 2 months ago by using of ethereum.core.fact_token_transfers table and tracking their inflow and outflow of tokens. I didn’t use the ethereum.core.ez_current_balances, because of I want to exclude the organizations wallet addresses and only have regular holders.

    (I compared my results with holders list on DYDX’s coinmarketcap page, and that was the same.)

    Then I tracked the account holders' activities from two months ago to see what they did in the previous two months.


    This dashboard has been parametrized by two parameters:

    Past months, that define Tokens holders until desired past months ago and desired assessed period time, it has been set up on 2 by default (Token holders until 2 month ago that called as two months ago holders and assess metrics over past 2 month).

    and timespan, which refer to determining the frequency of evaluations and are set to daily by default.

    Analysis

    ✍🏻 Conclusion

    As of Findings above:

    Based on the findings presented on this dashboard, the balance majority of holders changed from two months ago till now, so that until 2 months ago, overall about 53% of holders have had 10 ~ 1K tokens (27.5%=> 10 ~ 100 ==&== 27.5%=> 100 ~ 1K), while over past two months this percentages raised to 73% (29.6%=> 10 ~ 100 ==&== 43.4%=> 100 ~ 1K).

    Also, by ignoring the unknown wallet destinations, it is meaningful that the destination of the majority of transferred tokens by two-month-old holders was DEX's platforms, that implies the tend of swapping by old holders.

    It's worth noting that the effects of unlocking tokens on price can also be influenced by other market factors such as overall market sentiment and news about the project.

    Hey there 👋!

    Firstly, I appreciate you sticking with it until the conclusion.

    I'm Hamed, a civil engineering Ph.D.

    student interested in data analysis.

    I've made many similar dashboards and visualizations since I started at Flipside in January.

    Please take a look at my various contact details and let me know what you think.

    About:

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    :hourglass_flowing_sand: Transfer Metrics Over the Past 2 Months by Two Months Ago Holders

    :hourglass_flowing_sand: Swap Metrics Over the Past 2 Months by Two Months Ago Holders and All Users

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    db_img

    :hourglass_flowing_sand: A Comparision of Tow Months Ago Holders with Current Holders

    The PIE charts right, show the distribution of holders by amount of their tokens.

    As can be seen until 2 months ago, overall about 53% of holders have had 10 ~ 1K tokens (27.5%=> 10 ~ 100 ==&== 27.5%=> 100 ~ 1K), while over past two months this percentages change to 73% (29.6%=> 10 ~ 100 ==&== 43.4%=> 100 ~ 1K)

    So, Let’s go to see what happen over past two months.

    :mag_right: Findings:

    As can be observed from the current section visuals, the destinations of holders from two months ago have been mostly personal wallets and DEXs over the past two months.

    7 day transfer transactions count moving average smoothly decreased over past two months.

    :mag_right: Findings:

    Transferred volumes were fluctuating over the past two months, so that in some days they went up to over 2 million and finally peaked at 4 million on December 21st.

    The major destination was unknown wallets, followed by DEX platforms.

    7 day transferred volumes moving average decreased since December late.

    :mag_right: Findings:

    The chart above shows the cumulative swapped net volume over the past two months by two-month-ago holders.

    As can be seen, the total net swapped has increased over time and now stands at 1.64 million $DYDX.

    Also, as shown in the chart above left, the volume of swaps to $DYDX increased smoothly, and the swap in volume was greater than the swap out volume over time, indicating that holders preferred to buy $DYDX rather than sell it. 

    :mag_right: Findings:

    According to the charts above and the PIE charts below, 68.5% of the swapped volume ($DYDX) of 2 month ago holders belongs to DYDX to WETH, compared to 30.5% in reverse, while these percentages among all swappers are 51.1% for DYDX to WETH and 47.5% in reverse.