9. [Hard] RUNE price vs Swapper activity

    Analyzing the correlation between Rune price and THOR swap volumes

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    To investigate potential correlation between total swap volume and Rune price, the following three visualizations were created:

    • Total Daily Swap Volume vs Daily Rune price
    • Total Daily Swap Volume vs Daily Change in Rune price
    • Daily change in total swap volume vs daily change in Rune price.

    The Daily Rune price was obtained by taking the daily average of rune prices from Flipside's thorchain.prices table.

    While there is not a consistent correlation between the pairs of variable considered, we can see some periods where swap volume and prices are either negatively or positively correlated.

    • May 18th May 30th - There are periods of sharp price decreases and increases, which are accompanied by periods of increased trading activity.
    • October 21st - 25th: There are both increases in Rune Price and Swap volume.

    Further analysis could look at the correlation between swap volume for specific pools, and also accounting for changes in prices for other cryptocurrencies.