Ailing Alameda

    Analyze what Alameda is experiencing

    Introduction

    quick summary of what’s happening on FTX:

    It all started with Binance manager CZ's tweet that he say of his intention to sell 2B USD in FTT, while the trading volume of this token is not high, and this sales volume can cause a sharp decrease in its price, and this price decreasing can give a big blow to Alameda which Almost half of their assets are in FTT.

    These news, rumors and tweets caused doubts and worries for users of FTX exchange, so many of them quickly withdrew their capital from the exchange. Now the question is, is this outflows amount enough to hit FTX and Alameda?

    Method

    contracts and summary on how I collected the data:

    ==contracts==

    I gathered addresses that are related to FTX and Alameda with help of label tables on flipside and this tweet

    summary

    • This dashboard contains data related to 4 chains, which are Ethereum, Solana, Polygon BSC
    • We put our graphs in an aggregated form, that is, we included the total flow (inflow/outflow/Netflow) of all chains, but we also have breakdown by chain graphs.
    • This dashboard includes all data related to tokens:
    • Ethereum: USDT/USDC/DAI/MIM/BUSD/TUSD
    • Solana: USDT/USDC
    • BSC: USDT/USDC/DAI
    • Polygon: USDC/USDT/DA

    Of course, we also have breakdown graphs by tokens

    • Internal transfers were not included in this dashboard

    our approach for answering the bounty questions:

    we will have 6 sections:

    1. aggregated flows: total flow(inflow/outflow/netflow) volume breakdown by Timespan (last 24 hours/last 48 hours and others) and we have also daily inflow/outflow/net flow Volume
    2. breakdown by chain: here we breakdown netflow volume and daily flows stats by chian
    3. breakdown by Tokens: breakdown the stats by tokens name
    4. Top 100 flows: here we have the Top 100 flows for the last 3 days
    5. outflows destinations: here we have many visuals that can shows us the outflow volume breakdown by destinations

    All the Volume numbers are in USD

    If I did not write a limit in the title of the graph, it means that it include only the last month data

    Conclusion

    As we can see in the graphs, there has been a heavy outflow of capital, so that in the last one week, the amount of netflow was -1.22B USD, which is a very high number that has taken place in this period of time. These two factors, time and amount together, can have a very big impact on any platform, so ftx must take immediate measures to calm the users and control the situation

    On the other hand, the winner of all these events is binance, which had the largest share of FTX outflows, so that in the last week, 69.4% of the outflow was destined for binance.

    Thanks For your time

    Twitter: Abbas_ra21

    date: 2022-11-09

    Observations

    1. in the last 48 hours most of the outflows Volume(62%) went to Binance
    2. all the outflow MIM token went out to sushiswap
    3. For USDC and USDT, we see the presence of various DeFi platforms and that Binance has a smaller share in these two tokens compared to BUSD, TUSD and DAI.
    4. Although I believe that the Solana addresses we have for Binance are incomplete, but with this data, we can say that gate.io and Coinbase have the largest share as a destination for Solana outflows.
    Loading...
    Loading...
    Loading...
    Loading...
    Loading...
    Loading...
    Loading...
    Loading...
    Loading...
    Loading...
    Loading...
    Loading...
    Loading...
    Loading...
    Loading...
    Loading...

    Observations

    1. there was a huge amount of outflow amount on Nov 1st with almost 750M USD which 556M USD of it went to Binance wallets
    2. on Nov 6th and 7th most of the flow amounts went to Binance and Coinbase and binance had nearly 65% of outflows Volumes on these 2 days
    3. in the last month almost 2.44B USD went out from FTX and alameda to Binance
    Loading...
    Loading...
    Loading...
    Loading...

    Observations

    1. netflow is negative in all time periods and as you can see in the last 48 hours the netflow amount is -920M USD which is 62% of netflow amount in the last month and from that w can conclude that users were so eager to withdraw their asset from FTX
    2. We saw a negative spike in netflow on Nov 6 as the rumors about FTX picked up since then, so both on this day and the next we saw netflow above -400M USD, which is the highest in a month. We didn't even come close to it before

    Observations

    1. In the last 48 hours, we are witnessing negative netflow for all networks, but the amount is much higher for Solana, which is about -888M USD, while Ethereum is only -15M USD.
    2. Surprisingly, we have seen positive netflow for Ethereum in the last 24 hours
    3. On November 6, we also see a negative netflow from the BSC network, which is equal to -16M USD

    Observations

    1. most of the netflow amount on Nov 6 & 7th was consisted of USDC and USDT
    2. in the last week the netflow amount for USD was -843M USD More than twice USDC netflow Amount

    inflow/outflow/netflow stats

    where the outflows amount going specifically?