What is TERRA (LUNA) 2.0 ?

Terra (LUNA) 2.0 is the newest iteration of cryptocurrency on the Terra blockchain. In May 2022, the Terra blockchain experienced a hard fork prompted by founder Do Kwon and voted on by the community. This created the new Terra 2.0, with a new cryptocurrency, dubbed LUNA or LUNA2, while the original blockchain and coin took on the moniker LUNA Classic, or LUNC. Both blockchains still exist and operate separately, which can cause confusion for new investors. The old token was renamed terra classic (LUNC), and while the original Cosmos chain will continue to operate, the option to mint or burn coins will be disabled. The new blockchain was launched on 28 May 2022. So, LUNA Classic and LUNA 2.0 are not the same. The Terra network has been divided into two chains based on the new governance plan. The old LUNA will co-exist with LUNA 2.0 rather than being entirely replaced. Any decentralized applications (DApps) launched for Terra Luna will be favored for LUNA 2.0, and the development community will begin constructing DApps and providing utility for the new token. However, it does not include an algorithmic stablecoin. (Read More…)

The native token, $LUNA is the network’s staking and governance asset. Users stake LUNA to earn a place in governance and become validators and obtain rewards. Despite their striking resemblance,

Dashboard Introduction and Methodology

Beginning in the wee hours of Monday, January 9 (ET), the price of $LUNA skyrocketed, from $1.37 to a high of nearly $2 before settling down at roughly $1.60.

In this dashboard, I am going to mainly use Flipside’s terra.core tables in order to analyze the activity over Terra chain during the past days and try to identify some of the major reasons for this recent upshot in price.

• So, Firstly, I am going to set my analysis’s time period from 1st January 2023 till today (12th January 2023).
• Then, I am going to first, chart the hourly $LUNA price during this timespan and compare it with some other top cryptocurrencies such as BTC, ETH, SOL & ATOM.
• Then, I am going to analyze Terra network transactions, Transfers, and users over this time period.
• Then, I am going to analyze $LUNA inflow/outflow to/from centralized exchanges (CEXs) during this timespan.
• And then, I am going to analyze $LUNA swap activity during this timespan.

The main tables that I am going to analyze data are Flipside’s terra.core.ez_swaps (for $LUNA price analysis (by calculating the volume of swapped LUNA / USDC (stablecoin)) and also swaps activity), terra.core.fact_transactions (for transactions analysis), terra.core.ez_transfers (for transfers and CEXs inflow/outflow).

• $LUNA Token currency name in tables: 'uluna'

In this dashboard I am going to mainly analyze data in hourly time basis and divide our analysis’s time period into 2 parts:

1- 9th January: (the main day of $LUNA price raise)

2- Other Days: All Other Days Except 9th January.

$LUNA vs Some Other Top Cryptocurrencies Prices Over Time

On the left charts, we can see the price change of $LUNA token over time (left chart is in hourly time basis and the right one is in daily).

As we see and mentioned earlier, $LUNA price has increased from $1.26 on 1st January to almost $1.80 on Monday 9 January and has settled down roughly on $1.50. After 9 January, we do not see sharp increasing or decreasing price movements on LUNA.

On the right chart, we can see $LUNA price was below almost all moving averages (except 200 days) that were acting like some resistances for this token price raise but after that rally on Monday and currently, $LUNA price trend line is now above all mentioned moving averages and this can be good news since these lines can act like support lines that prevent $LUNA price from falling in value.

According to the above and left charts, we can see all other top cryptocurrencies have also experienced significant raise in their value but their highest jump was achieved on yesterday while $LUNA’s main jump has achieved on Monday 9th January.

So, we can say the whole cryptocurrency market situation is good during nowadays and this can be good news for all tokens including $LUNA that can recover their value from dark days during the last months especially after May Terra collapse and also November FTX Collapse.

Totally, we can see that $LUNA has the second best performance (after $SOL) during the past days and its price has experinced more growth than $ATOM, $ETH and $BTC.

Terra Transactions and Users

According to the above charts, Terra chain activity has increased dramatically on 9th January 2022 especially at 17:00.

As we see, the number of executed transactions, active and also new users as well as transactions fees has increased significantly on 9th January. So, this high activity on 9 January can be the main reason behind $LUNA price raise during recent days. After 9th January, there was a decline in these activities on Terra and the total trend line of all charts is slightly decreasing as time goes on.

On the 3 last charts (correlations) we can see that $LUNA price has raised exactly at the time when Terra transactions and active and new users have increased on chain.

As a more clear view, we can obviously see on the left charts that the average hourly number of transactions, active users, new users and also generated fees on Terra on 9th January is way more than Other days.

So, that can be a rational reason behind that raise in the price of the $LUNA.

$LUNA Transfers Overview

Similar to the transactions, we can see increasing number and also volume of $LUNA transfers within Terra on 9th January especially at 17:00. As we see, There is high activity of transfers and also transfers volume on Terra on 9th January but after this date again, there is a decline in both number and volume of transfers and the trend line has decreased over time. The interesting thing is that the average volume of transfers on 9th January is not so high (lower than many previous and later days) and this means that those high spikes on 9 January were not because of "Whales" activity and transfers. On the last chart, we can obviously see that the average hourly number and especially volume of transfers on 9th January is more than other days and this high activity can be another reason behind $LUNA price raise.

$LUNA Flow To/From Centralized Exchanges (CEXs)

Based on the above charts, again at 17:00 9th January, the number and volume of $LUNA flow to/from Centralized exchanges have increased significantly. As we see, the share of transfers TO CEXs (in both terms of number and volume) is more than transfers FROM CEXs on 9th January but the average volume of outflow $LUNA from CEXs is way more than average transfered $LUNA to CEXs. Also, we can see some increasing share of transfers FROM CEXs during 9th January hours (and also hours after that). So, this means that the sell pressure (transfer to CEX) of $LUNA is decreaasing and on the other hand, there is more buying and transfering out of CEXs for $LUNA token on 9th January and days after that. But still the sell pressure is higher than buy pressure. This decreasing sell pressure and on the other hand increasing share of transfers out of CEXs, can be another reason behind $LUNA price raise during recent days.

on the left charts, we can obviously see that the average number and also volume of $LUNA transfers to/from CEXs has increased significantly on 9th January compared to the other days.

in noramlized charts, we can see that the share of transfers TO CEX on 9th January has slightly increased but we have seen on the above charts that after 9th January, the $LUNA transfers from CEX has increased.

$LUNA Swap Activity

According to the above charts and similar to the previous metrics, the $LUNA swap activity on Terra has increased significantly after 17:00 9th January 2023. despite that decline after this hour and decreasing number and also volume of $LUNA swaps, we can still see there is way more $LUNA swapping activity during nowadays compared to the days before 9th January. Starting from 9th January, we can see increasing share of swaps to $LUNA (which means buying $LUNA) as time goes on and on the other hand, decreasing share of swaps from $LUNA (=selling $LUNA). But anyway, the number and also volume of swaps from $LUNA is still more than swaps to $LUNA but the decreasing sell pressure of this token can be a rational reason behind that price raise on 9th January. Also, we can see positive correlasion between $LUNA swap activity and its price over time especially on the main bullish day (9th January).

As mentioned earlier, the sell pressure (swapping from) of $LUNA token is still more than its buy pressure but its clearly obvious that after 9th January, the volume of swaps to $LUNA (buy pressure) has increased significantly and still continues after a few days.

This means that the sell pressure of $LUNA token is decreasing over time and on the other hand the buy pressure is increasing.

And on the left charts, we can obviously see that the $LUNa swap activity on 9th January is way more than other days. (in both paths).

Also, we can see the share of swaps TO $LUNA (buying it) has increased dramatically on 9th January (and as we have seen before, it still continues).

So, again we can say that decreasing sell pressure and increasing share of $LUNA purchasing activity can be another reason behind $LUNA price raise.

$LUNA Price Analysis

Technical-Wise, $LUNA price is currently at its weekly support (W(S)) trend line. this means there is a good resistance in this point that can maybe prevent price drop on this token.

Also, after that rally on 9th January, $LUNA price is now within Ichimoku Cloud. This means there is another good support for $LUNA that can precent this token from dropping its value.

On the other hand, we can see there is a resistance above $LUNA price around 1.5 ~ 1.6 price that can also prevent this token to reach higher values.

So, I personally, think that $LUNA is going to range within this area and remains its value for a while <> something special or big market movments (drop or raise) do not happen. but with big movments of whole cryptocurrency market, $LUNA is ready to experience big movements too, especially in raise.

But as u know, there are several reasons behind the price change of tokens in the cryptocurrency market such as their project and teams status, on-chain data, inflow and outflow to CEXs, inflation and interest rate, and the response of Federal Reserve (and similar organizations) in order to control inflation, technical situation of tokens’ price charts, Bitcoin (as the Cryptocurrency king) price movements and so many other reasons.

Many traders and analysts consider this project quite promising and predict that it could show significant price growth. However, no one knows for sure how LUNA will actually perform. Many factors may affect a coin’s price performance. In the next eight years, the Terra cryptocurrency could attract more attention from investors.

As a consequence, the asset’s price is expected to rise. The Terra (LUNA) community may attract users and marketers by certain cooperation with other projects and start-ups.

LUNA, the native token of Terra 2.0, is currently trading above the upper band of Bollinger Bands, indicating that the uptrend may continue. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 54, which shows neutral momentum, while the MACD is trading above the signal line with green histograms, indicating positive momentum.

The short-term outlook looks positive for the token, and this is also because the entire market has started to recover from November FTX crash and also expecting a good year for cryptocurrencies in 2023. It is difficult as of now to predict anything for the long term. However, don’t consider this investment advice; do your own research before putting your money into any crypto.

Terra (LUNA) price prediction 2023 suggests the price levels between $2.25 and $3.78; Terra crypto may show some resistance. Still, it can’t be said with certainty about the price forecast of LUNA as to whether 2023 would help bring bullishness for this crypto LUNA.

There could be some significant changes in industry scenarios, market positions, economic overruns, policy restructuring, or any other reason for the coin to host its performance. According to Terra price prediction, LUNA’s price is expected to exceed $3.02. By the end of 2023, Terra tokens are expected to reach a minimum price level of $2.25. (Source)

LUNA Distribution

Add Text HereNow lets read some predictions from other ppl about $LUNA:

the LUNA price has initiated two relief rallies (red icons) after May Crash. The second was considerably weaker than the first. Both were retraced entirely in a very short period of time. 

On Dec. 16, the LUNA price broke down from the long-term $1.65 horizontal price level. The support area had been in place for 155 days. Since the area had been in place for such a long period of time, it is possible that the breakdown from it marks the beginning of yet another downward movement. Since there is no support below the current LUNA price, this drop could take it to a new all-time low. 

The daily RSI does not offer any possibility for relief. While the indicator is increasing, it is still below 50 and has not generated any bullish divergence yet. 

As a result, the LUNA price prediction for January and beyond is considered bearish until the price reclaims the $1.65 area.

The technical analysis from the six-hour chart does nothing to dissuade from the bearish daily time frame outlook. 

The LUNA price has followed a short-term descending resistance line since Sept. 12 and was rejected by it on Dec. 27. This created a long upper wick.

Since there is no horizontal support below the current price, the 1.61 external Fib retracement is used to find the next closest support area at $0.83. 

To conclude, the LUNA price analysis is bearish as long as the price is trading below the $1.65 horizontal area and the descending resistance line. If the downward movement continues, the next closest support will be at $0.83.

(Source)

Recently Published Positive News About Terra

Albright Capital drops lawsuit against Terra Labs and Do Kwon

Albright Capital has dropped its lawsuit against Terraform Labs and its founder Do Kwon, according to a Notice of Voluntary Dismissal filed in U.S. District Court on January 9. Before its dismissal, the lawsuit had alleged that the company had violated the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act (“RICO”) by operating the stablecoin, UST, as a “Ponzi scheme.”

Three Arrows Capital (3AC) co-founder Su Zhu posted the dismissal to Twitter, saying:

> Curious how long it will take cryptonative media to report on this sudden voluntary dismissal of class action against Luna foundation and Luna investors. > > — Zhu Su (@zhusu) January 10, 2023

Zhu had previously claimed that the bankruptcy of 3AC was partially caused by UST’s collapse. The lawsuit was dismissed “without prejudice,” meaning that the plaintiff has the option to refile it in the future if desired.

In a statement to Cointelegraph, a Terraform Labs spokesperson struck a triumphant tone in regard to the dismissal, saying:

> In another victory for Terraform Labs, the plaintiff in Albright v. Terraform Labs voluntarily dismissed the case after it was demonstrated that he had sustained no injury. From the moment the Terra ecosystem was attacked and UST depegged, TFL has been adamant that neither the company nor its principles committed any wrongdoing[…]The intervening months have confirmed that the facts are on our side, and more are and will continue to come to light.

This news was published right on 9th January 2023. So maybe we can also say this positive news could had slightly positive impact on $LUNA price.

Summary and Conclusion

According to the above analysis:

• Many tokens have experienced growth in their price during the recent days because of the whole cryptocurrency market recovery but $LUNA was one of the top performers.
• The overall activity (transfers, users, swaps, CEX transfers, …) within Terra chain has increased significantly on 9th January started from 17:00 UTC time. This high increasing activity can be one of the rational reasons behind $LUNA rally.
• After 17:00, 9th January, there was a decline in activity of Terra chain and the overall number and volume of actions and also active users are decreasing over time but still the activity on chain is way more than before 9th January.
• Decreasing sell-pressure of $LUNA token (in both CEXs and DEXs) and on the other hand, increasing share of $LUNA purchasing can be one of the main reasons behind the increasing price of this token.
• The majority of traders and analyst believe that $LUNA token can raise in the near future but anyway its hard to recover the trust of the users who have lost many of their assets because of the May Terra crash.
• Currently $LUNA token is at a point where can prevent it from losing its value (unless another bankruptcy or big failure has happened!) and <> something special or big market movments (drop or raise) do not happen i think $LUNA price can remain on this spot for a while. but with big movments of whole cryptocurrency market, $LUNA is ready to experience big movements too, especially in raise.

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$LUNA Token Airdrop

During the last months, there were several $LUNA token airdrop distributed among users who have lost their old LUNA tokens because of the May Terra collapse.

The majority of users who have received their airdropped $LUNA may have sell their token that caused high sell pressure for this token.

So, we can kinda conclude that after ending sell-pressure of $LUNA token, there can be price raise for this token in the future.