ETH Merge: Selling Event?

    -- Was the Merge a selling event? Why or why not? -- Were miners the source of sell pressure? Show any wallets miners have transferred ETH into, -- along with any other visualizations you think will add to your analysis.

    Swap Volume from $ETH

    • For the swap frequency we look at the swap from $ETH only to see if $ETH was swapped into other tokens.
    • The biggest surprise comes after the merge actually where we saw 5.64M $ETH swapped into other tokens.
    • Out of these 5.64M $ETH only 42 $ETH were contributed by the Miners.
    • There are no outliers on the other days.
    • Cumulatively we do see more $ETH sold after the merge 7.62M before vs 9.9M after.

    Swap Frequency

    • There is nothing noticeable in the number of swap before and after the merge.
    • 465K before vs 423K after the merge.
    • Nothing special about the miners as well.

    Number of Swappers

    • There is nothing noticeable in the number of swappers before and after the merge.
    • 180K before vs 159K after the merge.
    • Nothing special about the miners as well.

    Transfers

    Conclusion

    Was the Merge a selling event? Why or why not?

    • Not really, given the data we cannot say that the merge was a selling event, looking at the 50K blocks before and after the merge, we see that there wasn’t any sell pressure with the merge.

    Were the miners the source of sell pressure?

    • As seen above Miners account for a very small percentage of the transfers as well as swaps, therefore we can say miners were not the source of Sell pressure.

    Show any wallets miners have transferred ETH into

    • Here are the wallets the miners are transferring $ETH into, the highest amount of $ETH transferred was infact after the merge where it was transferred to 1inch v4: router which means the miner swapped most of their $ETH after the merge.
    • The Binance Deposit Wallet has the highest number of wallets transferring $ETH into, 5.7K transfers before and 2.8K transfers after the merge.

    What Is the Ethereum Merge?

    • The Merge is the official name of the Ethereum blockchain's transition from PoW to PoS. Like Bitcoin, Ethereum is well known for its environmental impact, requiring more power than numerous large countries to keep its blockchain up and running and secure. After switching to PoS, it is thought Ethereum will consume 99.9 percent less energy.[1]

    • As gratuitous energy waste is one of the main criticisms of cryptocurrency in general and specifically NFTs (many of which are minted on the Ethereum blockchain), that the Merge will tackle one of the biggest consumers is likely to go down well across the board.

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    When Did the Ethereum Merge Happen? Is the Merge Complete?

    • The Ethereum Merge took place on 15 September 2022 at block 15537351
    • The Merge took years of planning, but as soon as the Ethereum blockchain hit the correct Total Terminal Difficult (TTD) of 58,750,000,000,000,000,000,000, the transition was instantaneous.
    • There was no pause to boot up different software or load something else, the transition was automatic.

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    Transfer Volume from $ETH

    • For the transfer frequency we look at the $ETH transfers to other wallets.
    • All the days, the day before, day of and the day after the merge saw huge volume of $ETH being transferred.
    • 8.72M $ETH right before the merge and 7.2M right after the merge.
    • Cumulatively we do see more $ETH transferred before the merge 28.9M vs 27.6M after the merge.
    • Miners are responsible for a very small amount of $ETH around 50K in total around the merge.

    Transfer Frequency

    • There is nothing noticeable in the number of transfers before and after the merge.
    • 4.5M before vs 3.9M after the merge.
    • Nothing special about the miners as well.

    Number of Transferrers

    • There is nothing noticeable in the number of transferres before and after the merge.
    • 2.7M before vs 1.8M after the merge.
    • Nothing special about the miners as well, just that they contribute towards a portion of the number of transfers.

    Overview

    We look at the following metrics to answer various questions about the before and after merge.

    • Number of $ETH Transfers
    • Number of $ETH Swaps
    • Number of $ETH Transfers by Miners
    • Number of $ETH Swaps by Miners
    • Where is the $ETH by Miners transferred to

    Methodology

    • To get a comparative analysis we look at 50000 blocks both before and after the merge block 15537351
    • We look at the data from ethereum.core.fact_blocks,ethereum.core.ez_dex_swaps tables and compute various metrics to answer the questions above.
    • We look at both the overall metrics and then categorize them by miners and non-miners.

    Number of block before and after the merge can be updated via the parameter above