In the News - 13. DYDX Unlock

DYDX holders are bracing for a massive event next month, as 105% of the circulating supply will be distributed to investors and team members. Have holders begun preparing for this massive unlock? If so, what actions are they taking to prepare? How do you expect the market to react in the weeks leading up to and following the unlock? Back up your assertions with data.

Overview

What is DYDX ?

dYdX is the developer of a leading decentralized exchange on a mission to build open, secure, and powerful financial products. dYdX runs on audited smart contracts on Ethereum, which eliminates the need to trust a central exchange while trading. We combine the security and transparency of a decentralized exchange, with the speed and usability of a centralized exchange.

What is the difference with DYDX ?

We’re excited to be the first crypto exchange to offer truly free trading* to all users, across all markets.

We do things differently here: no hidden markups, expensive staking requirements, or misleading spreads — and you can trade confidently knowing that you always retain full custody of your crypto.

DYDX Token Unlock Gets Delayed Until December - Source

dYdX Trading Inc., dYdX Foundation, and certain parties to the Warrants to Purchase Tokens (“Warrants”) holding a number of $DYDX tokens sufficient to amend the Warrants, signed an amendment (the “Amendment”) whereby, among other things, the transfer restriction schedule applicable to the $DYDX Tokens issued in connection with the Warrants (the “Tokens”) has been extended, including by postponing the initial release date (the “Initial Unlock Date”) to December 1, 2023 for all investors that are a party to the Warrants.

Methodology

Before any token unlock we expect the token to be dumped once unlocked for people who have invested to get back their investments.
Going by this thesis we look at the following metrics:
- DYDX Token price.
- DYDX swaps from DYDX to other tokens.
- Unstaking of DYDX tokens to get ready to sell.
For price we look at the crosschain.core.fact_hourly_prices table.
For swaps ethereum.core.ez_dex_swaps
For unstaking transactions ethereum.core.ez_token_transfers
We look at the last 90 days to see the overall trend, the number of days can be changed from parameters above.

Swaps from DYDX token

This is a very important metric which tells us if people are selling the DYDX token.
There were some sell offs around Nov 13-14 when the price spiked before falling.
However the sell offs starting Jan 20, 2023 are quite prominent, especially Jan 25 saw 475 swap transaction to swap DYDX token to other tokens.
Jan 25 alone saw 310 swappers swapping the DYDX tokens.
Jan 25 totalled a sell off of 900K DYDX tokens worth 1.7M $USD.
Uniswap-V3 has been the choice of DEX to sell off these tokens.
These metrics clearly show that the holders waited the very last moment before the unlock to sell off the tokens.

Unstaking DYDX token

This is a also very important metric which tells us if people are unstaking DYDX tokens and getting ready to sell them.
In the past 90 days there have been 1.1K unstakers for a total of 31.1M DYDX tokens for a total of 44.5M $USD.
There was clearly a spike in the number of unstakers and unstaking transactions on Dec 20, 2022, which was almost 1 month before the unlock.
Dec 20 alone saw 164 wallets unstaking the DYDX tokens.
Dec 20 totalled a unstaking of 15M DYDX tokens worth 21M $USD.
These metrics clearly show that the holders prepared and were ready to sell off right near the unlock.

Conclusion

However the sell offs starting Jan 20, 2023 are quite prominent, especially Jan 25 saw 475 swap transaction to swap DYDX token to other tokens.
- Jan 25 alone saw 310 swappers swapping the DYDX tokens.
- Jan 25 totalled a sell off of 900K DYDX tokens worth 1.7M $USD.
- Uniswap-V3 has been the choice of DEX to sell off these tokens.
These metrics clearly show that the holders waited the very last moment before the unlock to sell off the tokens.
In the past 90 days there have been 1.1K unstakers for a total of 31.1M DYDX tokens for a total of 44.5M $USD.
There was clearly a spike in the number of unstakers and unstaking transactions on Dec 20, 2022, which was almost 1 month before the unlock.
- Dec 20 alone saw 164 wallets unstaking the DYDX tokens.
- Dec 20 totalled a unstaking of 15M DYDX tokens worth 21M $USD.
These metrics clearly show that the holders were prepared, they unstaked and were ready to sell off right near the unlock.

DYDX Token Price

DYDX is overall slightly up from $1.67 to $1.9 since 90 days ago.
It even went up as much as $2.46 on Nov 15, 2022, however it has been a downfall since then, until today.
As announced the token unlock has been delayed to Dec 2023, which has made the DYDX token surge in price.

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