Terra - 7. Price Run Investigation
Beginning in the wee hours of Monday, January 9 (ET), the price of LUNA skyrocketed, from $1.37 to a high of nearly $2 before settling down at roughly $1.60. Identify some of the major reasons for this recent upshot in price, and back up your assertions with data. Why did the price jump so suddenly on Monday night? Will prices remain at, or above, current marks in the coming weeks or will it return to at or near $1? Why?
What Is Terra?
Terra is an open-source blockchain payment platform for an algorithmic stablecoin, which are cryptocurrencies that automatically track the price of currencies or other assets. The Terra blockchain enables users to instantly spend, save, trade, or exchange Terra stablecoins.
The Terra protocol creates stablecoins designed to consistently track the price of a fiat currency (a government-backed currency such as the U.S. dollar or euro). It consists of two cryptocurrency tokens—Terra and Luna. LINK
Understanding Terra
Terra is a payment system that resides and is built upon a blockchain. It was developed by South Korea-based Terraform Labs, which was founded in 2018 by Do Kwon and Daniel Shin. Do Kwon was formerly employed by Microsoft and Apple and founded a startup, Anyfi, which offered decentralized wireless mesh networking solutions. Shin is the founder and CEO of Asian payment technology company Chai—a Terra partner—and was co-founder of Korean e-commerce firm TMON, also known as Ticket Monster. LINK
Terra and Luna
Because the primary value of stablecoins is derived from the stability of the price peg, theoretically bypassing the volatility typical of cryptocurrencies, the Terra protocol attempts to maintain the price of the Terra stablecoin by ensuring that the supply and demand for it are always balanced by employing arbitrage.1
Luna is the variable counterweight to the Terra stablecoin and absorbs its volatility. To understand how Terra works, envision the entire Terra "economy" to consist of a Terra pool and a Luna pool, which are used to adjust the price via incentives for network participants. LINK

Methodology
In this dashboard, we will examine the significant increase in the price of Luna. The price of Luna has increased from $1.3 to more than $2 on January 8, 2023. Using the analysis of swap tables, we will examine the reasons for this price increase and compare the price charts of different coins with Luna. The amount of buying and selling, the number of buying and selling, and the buyer and seller are effective, so we will examine it.
For this analyze I used price and swaps chart:
terra.core.ez_swaps
ethereum.core.fact_hourly_token_prices
solana.core.fact_token_prices_hourly
crosschain.core.fact_hourly_prices
osmosis.core.dim_prices
Observation I
The daily chart shows that the price increase started on January 8 and reached $1.56 on January 10 with a sharp growth. After that, it has an upward trend in the form of a share curve and reaches a price of more than $2 on January 16th.
The hourly price chart shows that on January 9, the price will suddenly rise from 1.39 to 1.81 and then dump to 1.48. After that, it continues its upward trend and on January 14, it reaches the price of $1.92 for a limited time, and then it is dumped. Then the price rises to $2.17 on January 16.
Observation II
The total number of swaps since January 8 from Luna to USD is 12.736k and from USD to Luna is 12.129k. The total number of swappers since January 8 from Luna to USD is 807 and from USD to Luna is 511. The total volume of swaps since January 8 from Luna to USD is equal to 43.01 million units of Luna and from USD to Luna is equal to 4.54 million units of Luna. The total volume of swaps since January 8 from Luna to USD is equal to 43.01 million units of Luna and from USD to Luna is equal to 4.54 million units of Luna.
The daily charts show that on all days after January 8, the number of swaps from Luna to USD is more than USD to Luna.
They have the biggest difference on January 15, the day when Luna price reaches $2.
The highest number of transactions for buying and selling Luna happens on January 15.
The number of swappers is the highest on January 15 and reaches (128 buyers + 225 sellers).
The number of sellers is more than buyers on all days.
On January 14th, it has the highest number (200) after January 15th.
On January 15, when Luna reaches more than $2 from the price of 1.8, it accounts for the largest volume of sales, which is equal to 34.66 million USD, followed by January 16, when the volume of swaps Luna in USD is equal to 883.263K.
Observation III
Top 3 LUNA Buyers with The Most of The Volume (USD)
Swapper | Volume (LUNA) | Volume (USD) | |
---|---|---|---|
:1st_place_medal: | terra1fhgqfnef2wvz6rnmuc9mxupwq0mmks7ka8eu9r | 2017765.241826 | 3615447.819285 |
:2nd_place_medal: | terra1wuekpvzyk229el4wu7v7q3pgrsaqpazzy6mzkx | 6.290846 | 744612.573279 |
:3rd_place_medal: | terra1f89px059wausd4ndv703lyp0579e86fk6aq95f | 186081.57722 | 325046.924566 |
Top 3 LUNA Buyers with The Most of The Volume (LUNA)
Swapper | Volume (LUNA) | Volume (USD) | |
---|---|---|---|
:1st_place_medal: | terra1fhgqfnef2wvz6rnmuc9mxupwq0mmks7ka8eu9r | 2017765.241826 | 3615447.819285 |
:2nd_place_medal: | terra1qyazntu0qycqavumqf0slmtgxpp70lqrtler8t | 231625.020387 | 243606.004767 |
:3rd_place_medal: | terra1f89px059wausd4ndv703lyp0579e86fk6aq95f | 186081.57722 | 325046.924566 |
Observation IV
The total number of swaps (LUNA - Others) since January 8 from Luna to Others is 14.716k and from Others to Luna is 12.524k.
The total number of swappers since January 8 from Luna to Others is 1077 and from Others to Luna is 530.
Daily charts are similar to Luna-USD and do not require much analysis.
The cumulative graph of the number of swaps shows that from the 8th to the 10th, the rate of increase in the number of swaps is higher than from the 10th to the 13th.
From 13 to 15, the rate of increase in the number of swaps increases and then decreases from 15 to 15.
The cumulative chart of the number of swappers is also like this.
Observation V
If we set the price of coins on January 8 as the base price and get the price difference of the rest of the days from it, we will reach the graph of percentage price changes.
As it is clear from the graph, the only currencies that have increased in value on January 9 are Sol and Luna, which are more than 25% and 15%, respectively.
On January 9, Luna experienced a 37% price increase for a moment.
On January 13, almost all coins saw an increase in price and this increase continues until finally, after Sol, Luna has the highest growth compared to January 8.
Finally, until January 17, Sol has grown by almost 80%.
And on the same date, January 8, after Sol, Luna has a growth of almost 60%. It can be concluded that with the increase in the price of Luna, the number and volume of sales increases, and in fact, users had the desire to sell at this stage of the increase in the price of Luna.
Conclusions
- Price increase started on January 8 and reaches a price of more than $2 on January 16th.
- The total number of swaps since January 8 from Luna to USD is 12.736k and from USD to Luna is 12.129k.
- The total number of swappers since January 8 from Luna to USD is 807 and from USD to Luna is 511.
- The total volume of swaps since January 8 from Luna to USD is equal to 43.01 million units of Luna and from USD to Luna is equal to 4.54 million units of Luna.
- The total volume of swaps since January 8 from Luna to USD is equal to 43.01 million units of Luna and from USD to Luna is equal to 4.54 million units of Luna.
- The number of swaps from Luna to USD is more than USD to Luna and have the biggest difference on January 15, the day when Luna price reaches $2.
- January 8, Luna has a growth of almost 60%. Increase in the price of Luna causes increasing in the number and volume of sales.
About
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