📃 Purposes of dashboard

Beginning in the wee hours of Monday, January 9 (ET), the price of LUNA skyrocketed, from $1.37 to a high of nearly $2 before settling down at roughly $1.60.

🟡 Purposes of dashboard:

• Identify some of the major reasons for this recent upshot in price?
• Why did the price jump so suddenly on Monday night?
• Will prices remain at, or above, current marks in the coming weeks or will it return to at or near $1? Why?

🧱 Strategy

In general, to analysis the price changes of LUNA on January 9, the following metrics are analyzed:

• Number of LUNA coins in circulation → Analysis of changes in the number of LUNA coins in circulation.
• Technical factors → Evaluating the impact of technical indicators such as 30-day moving average.
• The impact of the crypto market on the price of LUNA → Analysis of BTC and ETH price changes and its impact on LUNA price changes./ Correlation analysis between BTC & ETH price with LUNA.
• Changes in the number of transactions and the number of active addresses → Analysis of changes in the number of transactions related to different actions (swap, staking, liquidity providing, nft sale and nft minting)
• Changes in LUNA transfers between different addresses → Tracking the addresses that recorded the most transfers on January 9.
• Checking the volume of buying and selling → Tracking the addresses that recorded the most swaps on January 9.

• The address terra1jv65s3grqf6v6jl3dp4t6c9t9rk99cd8pm7utl recorded the most number of LUNA transfer transactions. This address has sent about 397K LUNA to 2129 unique addresses in 2827 transactions. This address has sent LUNA to other addresses at almost all hours of January 9. The highest number of transactions of this address was recorded at 17:00.
• Examining the performance of other top addresses also shows that these addresses recorded the highest number of transactions at 17:00.
• The address terra1fd68ah02gr2y8ze7tm9te7m70zlmc7vjyyhs6xlhsdmqqcjud4dql4wpxr also sent about 1.57M LUNA to 81 unique addresses in 1,444 transactions.

• Examining different addresses shows that terra1ncjg4a59x2pgvqy9qjyqprlj8lrwshm0wleht5 is the top address in terms of volume of transfers on January 9, sending about 1.6M LUNA to one address in 124 transactions. The highest amount of LUNA was sent by this address at 17:00. The above chart clearly shows that other top addresses have also sent a large portion of LUNA to other addresses at 17:00.
• The address terra1fd68ah02gr2y8ze7tm9te7m70zlmc7vjyyhs6xlhsdmqqcjud4dql4wpxr also sent a large amount of Luna at 5pm to 81 unique addresses.
• In general, addresses terra1ncjg4a59x2pgvqy9qjyqprlj8lrwshm0wleht5, terra1fd68ah02gr2y8ze7tm9te7m70zlmc7vjyyhs6xlhsdmqqcjud4dql4wpxr, and terra18vnrzlzm2c4xfsx382pj2xndqtt00rvhu24sqe have sent a total of 4.3M LUNA to other addresses on January 9. Most of the volume sent was done at 17:00.

• The address terra1ygcvxp9s054q8u2q4hvl52ke393zvgj0sllahlycm4mj8dm96zjsa45rzk has recorded the highest number of LUNA receiving on January 9 with 1846 transactions. This address received a total of 1,333 LUNA from 15 other addresses. The address terra1fd68ah02gr2y8ze7tm9te7m70zlmc7vjyyhs6xlhsdmqqcjud4dql4wpxr is also ranked second with 1496 received transactions. 83 different addresses have sent a total of about 562K LUNA to this address.
• Examining the ‘‘top 10 addresses in terms of the number of LUNA receiving’’ shows that almost most of the LUNA receiving were recorded by these addresses at 5 p.m.

• The analysis of the addresses that received the most LUNA volume on January 9 shows that a large part of the LUNA volume was deposited to these addresses at 5 p.m. (The above chart clearly shows this.)

  For example, addresses terra1ncjg4a59x2pgvqy9qjyqprlj8lrwshm0wleht5 and terra18vnrzlzm2c4xfsx382pj2xndqtt00rvhu24sqe each received approximately 1.6M LUNA on January 9th, most of them at 5 p.m.

• The interesting thing to note about the address terra18vnrzlzm2c4xfsx382pj2xndqtt00rvhu24sqe is that the entire volume of LUNA was sent by one address in 124 transactions for this address.

• For the first time since the beginning of 2023, on January 9, the number of LUNA buying and selling transactions increased significantly. On this day, a total of 2,919 swaps were made, 44% of which were related to the purchase of LUNA and the rest related to the sale of LUNA. 41

  The number of LUNA buy and sell transactions increased by more than 300% after January 9th.

• The swap volume on January 9 was about 2.26M LUNA. The sales volume on this day was about 283K LUNA more than the purchase volume.

  The chart of LUNA selling & buying volume shows that on January 3rd, 6th and 11th, unusual volume of LUNA was bought.

In the following, we will examine the swap situation on January 9 in more detail.

• The highest volume and number of swaps was recorded on January 9 at 5 p.m. After this hour, the volume and number of swaps have decreased again. The volume of swap in this hour was about 623K LUNA, the volume of buying LUNA was about 51.5K more than its selling volume. But the number of LUNA sales transactions has been more than its purchase transactions. At 17:00, the number of buyers was equal to 38 addresses and the number of sellers was equal to 87 addresses.

The increase in swap volume can be one of the reasons for the price increase at 17:00.

• An unusual volume of sales is also observed at 2 p.m. Most of the LUNA sold this hour was done by the address terra1p0v5rvwur9n60l4x4r3wed32mtracdrk8wn3ne.
  • sales volume at 2 p.m → 239.8K LUNA
  • terra1p0v5………...n3ne → 230.5K LUNA

Among the top 10 addresses that had the highest sales volume on January 9, only three addresses had LUNA sales volume at 5 p.m. These addresses are:

1️⃣ terra1fhgqfnef2wvz6rnmuc9mxupwq0mmks7ka8eu9r → This address recorded a total of 1276 swaps on January 9. → Selling: 628 TXs (182,392 LUNA) & Buying: 648 TXs (184,491 LUNA) → The highest sales volume of LUNA was recorded by this address at 5 p.m.

2️⃣ terra17aq8zcd9644nshjfx8azh42mfpfn2kp0tqwzl4 → This address sold a total of 23,652 LUNA in 2 transactions. One of these transactions was done at 5:00 p.m. and the other at 8:00 p.m.

3️⃣ terra1qyazntu0qycqavumqf0slmtgxpp70lqrtler8t → This address has made a total of 8 swaps on January 9, all of which were recorded at 5:00 p.m. The swap volume of this address was equal to 315,738 LUNA.

The address terra1qyazntu0qycqavumqf0slmtgxpp70lqrtler8t recorded the largest volume of purchases on January 9. This address has made the largest volume of purchases at 5 p.m.

Among the top 10 buyers of LUNA on Jan 9, 6 addresses have recorded transactions at 5:00 p.m., and among these 6 addresses, 4 addresses had swaps only in this hour. These 4 addresses have bought a total of about 150.6K LUNA at 5:00 p.m. In other words, these 4 addresses together account for 44.5% of the total purchase volume of LUNA at 5:00 p.m.

✍🏻 Methodology

In this dashboard, data has been extracted using the Flipsidecrypto database. Some of the tables that have been used are:

• terra.core.ez_swaps → This table has been used to call information about swaps of LUNA (currency='uluna') in 2023. On the other hand, using this table, we also evaluated the status of circulating supply of LUNA coins.

• crosschain.core.fact_hourly_prices → The information in this table has been used to obtain data related to the price of LUNA → id='terra-luna-2'

• ethereum.core.fact_hourly_token_prices → The information in this table is used to get the data related to the price of BTC (symbol='WETH') and ETH (symbol='WETH')

• terra.core.fact_transactions → The data of this table were called to analyze the number of transactions and the number of active addresses. The transactions related to each of the actions are also extracted from the following tables: swap → terra.core.ez_swaps / staking → terra.core.ez_staking / liquidity providing → terra.core.fact_lp_actions / NFT Sales & NFT minting → terra.core.fact_nft_sales & terra.core.fact_nft_mints

• terra.core.ez_transfers → This table is used to track LUNA (currency='uluna') transfers between different addresses.

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📚 About LUNA

After the crash of the Terra network, its users and developers made various proposals to restore it. Finally, it was decided that a new network will be launched and its cryptocurrencies will be divided among the users of the previous network with a certain ratio. The new network, which started its work on May 28, 2022, is called Terra and its native cryptocurrency is LUNA.

The new Terra network is based on the Cosmos SDK. The difference between the new network and the previous network is that there is no native stablecoin in this network and the Burn/Mint mechanism has also been removed from it. One of the remarkable points of the new network is that only 10% of its cryptocurrencies belong to its development team and 90% of the cryptocurrencies are owned by users. Considering this issue, it can be said that the Terra network is one of the few blockchain networks whose ownership is almost completely in the hands of its user community.[1]

• The total supply of LUNA coins is equal to 1.043B. Of this number, about 23.3% of it, i.e. 243M, is in circulation.
• Examining the charts shows that on January 15th, a large amount of LUNA coins were released. On this day, about 2.92% of the total number of LUNA have been released. Before this date, the largest release of LUNA coins was on August 21, 2022. On that day, about 2.29% of the total number of coins had been released. Since this event is after January 9th, it cannot be a reason for the price increase on January 9th.

• Analysis of the LUNA price chart shows that the price of LUNA had a significant jump at 17:00 on January 9. The price of LUNA rose from $1.39 at 4 p.m. to $1.81 at 5 p.m. In fact, the price of LUNA increased by about 30% in one hour.

• A technical review of the LUNA price chart shows that the daily average price of LUNA closed above the 30-day moving average on January 9. The last time the price of LUNA closed above the 30-day MA was in late August 2022, and after on September 21, the price closed again below the 30-day MA. The rise of the LUNA price above the 30-day moving average can indicate the continuation of the upward trend in the price of this currency.

• LUNA price changes on January 9 were around 46 cents. The last time the daily price change of LUNA was recorded more than this amount was related to November 8, 2022.

• Could the LUNA price jump on January 9th be caused by BTC or ETH price changes?

  To answer this question, we pay attention to the price chart of BTC and ETH. The price of BTC and ETH also increased by 1.95% and 4.4% respectively at 17:00 on January 9. Therefore, the price growth of LUNA can be caused by the price growth of ETH and BTC.

  But is there really a correlation between the price of LUNA and the price of ETH and BTC?

  The correlation coefficient between LUNA price and BTC price is strong and positive (correlation coefficient = 0.69), while the correlation coefficient between LUNA price and ETH price is moderate and positive((correlation coefficient = 0.57). Therefore, the increase in the price of LUNA can be more influenced by the increase in the price of BTC than the increase in the price of ETH.

• At 17:00 on January 9, the number of transactions and the number of addresses recorded their highest value in 2023. At this hour, 2,891 transactions have been registered by 661 unique addresses.

• The three addresses terra1m4hq3r4xacwam3zk40kh0892gwlfzdpcxafd7u, terra1fhgqfnef2wvz6rnmuc9mxupwq0mmks7ka8eu9r and terra14uhlzf6v5c84y79ussxfc5lqmpc3f242yqr877 recorded the highest number of transactions on January 9. About 39% of the transactions at 17:00 are related to the top 10 addresses.

• A review of transactions on January 9th shows that at 17:00 the number of swap related transactions has increased dramatically. About 26% of total transactions in this hour (762 transactions) are related to swaps. After the swap transactions, the number of transactions related to staking has also increased significantly in this hour.

  From 18:00 onwards, the number of swaps has gradually decreased, so in the last hour of this day, the number of swaps decreased to 156 transactions. That is, the number of swaps at the end of January 9 compared to 17:00 decreased by 79%.

• The significant increase in the number of transactions, especially the number of transactions related to swaps, can be one of the reasons for the increase in the price of LUNA at 17:00 on January 9.

  In the following sections, the status of swaps on January 9 will be analyzed in detail. \n

Correlation(BTC,LUNA)=+0.69

Correlation(ETH,LUNA)=+0.57

Examining LUNA transfers between different addresses shows that at 17:00 on January 9, the largest volume of LUNA was transferred between different addresses. At this hour, about 5.2M LUNA have been transferred between different addresses in 2132 transactions. About 513 unique addresses have sent this volume of LUNA to 604 addresses. These transfers can be the basis for the increase in the price of LUNA at 17:00 on January 9. In the following, we examine the performance of the top addresses.

📊 Conclusion

On January 9, at 17:00, the price of LUNA rose from $1.39 to $1.81. In other words, the price of LUNA grew by about 30% within an hour. In this dashboard, the factors affecting the sudden growth of LUNA price on January 9 were analyzed. The most important results obtained are:

• On January 9th, there were no significant changes in the number of LUNA coins in circulation, but on January 15th, about 2.92% of LUNA coins were released. This amount of release is the highest amount in the whole life of LUNA. It is interesting to note here that the increase in the price of LUNA can cause the release of LUNA coins.

• Examining the ETH and BTC price charts shows that these currencies have grown by 4.4% and 1.95% respectively at 17:00 on January 9th, so the growth in the price of LUNA can be due to the growth in the price of BTC and ETH. Examining the correlation coefficient between LUNA and BTC and ETH shows that the correlation between LUNA and BTC is strong and the correlation between LUNA and ETH is moderate. Therefore, the growth of the BTC price can definitely be considered one of the factors affecting the growth of the LUNA price.

• The highest number of transactions and the highest number of active addresses in 2023 is related to 17:00 on January 9. At this hour, the number of transactions related to swaps has increased dramatically. The number of swaps increased from 139 transactions at 16:00 to 762 transactions at 17:00. All these movements contributed to the increase in the price of Luna on January 9. The volume of swap was about 624K LUNA at this hour. On the other hand, the purchase volume of LUNA in this hour was about 51.5K LUNA more than its sales volume. This purchase volume is definitely one of the reasons for the growth of LUNA price.

• A review of LUNA transfers also shows that at 17:00 on January 9, the largest volume has been transferred between different addresses since the beginning of 2023. In this hour about 5.3M LUNA were sent in 2132 transactions by 513 unique addresses to 604 addresses. Analysis of the top addresses also shows that many of them have been involved in LUNA transfers this hour.

• The technical review of the LUNA price chart shows that the average daily price of LUNA on January 9 has risen above the 30-day moving average after a period of almost a year. According to the volume of the top swapper addresses that had a large volume of transactions at 17:00, it can be concluded that some market makers may have caused the price of LUNA to grow on January 9.

  
  
  Analyst: Emanoel

  ***Twitter: ***

  Discord: Eman#9698

  Special thanks to the Flipsidecrypto 🧡

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