LTirrellsmb raffle tickets probability calc hist
Updated 2023-07-01
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-- forked from smb raffle tickets probability calc @ https://flipsidecrypto.xyz/edit/queries/6dac6c47-a8eb-4838-9610-9a9dde0cbb0d
-- forked from smb raffle tickets by minter summary @ https://flipsidecrypto.xyz/edit/queries/79c9816e-abf6-4098-89b7-359c4d941370
-- forked from smb raffle ticket by minter @ https://flipsidecrypto.xyz/edit/queries/bd062abc-58a8-46e2-8da1-aa740a5610f6
-- forked from smb raffle ticket cost @ https://flipsidecrypto.xyz/edit/queries/19e46b24-0357-454b-b77a-5e746eea4a28
-- forked from smb raffle fees @ https://flipsidecrypto.xyz/edit/queries/78da776e-36e1-4f99-a68b-51571cd9e808
-- forked from smb raffle base @ https://flipsidecrypto.xyz/edit/queries/eb475bf3-6f9b-4748-ab29-5643ee894794
with
tix_seq as (
SELECT
seq4() as ticket_seq
FROM
TABLE (GENERATOR(ROWCOUNT => 250)) v
ORDER BY
1
)
SELECT
-- probabilty calculator
-- https://www.reddit.com/r/runescape/comments/2f7wiy/want_to_cafllculate_your_odds_of_winning_a_raffle/
-- python code for more precise calculation, but doesn't work in SQL:
-- import math
-- def combination_formula(t,n):
-- return math.factorial(t)/(math.factorial(t-n)*math.factorial(n))
-- def combination_probability(t,n,x):
-- return 1 - combination_formula(t-x,n)/combination_formula(t,n)
-- this will underestimate odds, as there is replacements
ticket_seq,
1 - pow(((79385 - 4000) / 79385), ticket_seq) as probability
from
tix_seq
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