In this dashboard, we want to find out if there is a relationship between OP price and trade volume on DEXs?

OP price VS Swap Volumes

OP price Changes VS Swap Balance Volume

Summary and conclusion

• Lagged swap balance has the highest correlation with OP price changes.

• Lagged swap balance has the highest correlation with OP price changes. It means that for example, if today we had a high swapping balance in sushi and velodrome DEXs (Swapped into OP volume higher than Swapped out from OP volume), the next day OP price will likely increase.
• Among Swaps volume, these volumes have the highest correlation with OP price:
  • Swapped out OP (after June 13th) and with 1-day lag: 0.633
  • All OP Swap Volume (after June 13th) and with 1-day lag: 0.629
  • Swapped to OP (after June 13th) and with 1-day lag: 0.624
• We can see that the highest correlation between OP price or OP price change and volume or volume balance occurs with 1-day lag and after June 13th.

• The highest correlation with OP price is between OP price and swapped out volume of OP tokens.

Methodology

• Daily OP prices were extracted from optimism.core.fact_hourly_token_prices by averaging hourly prices.
• Swap Volumes were extracted from Sushi and Velodrome DEX on Optimism.
• Sushi swaps were extracted from optimism.sushi.ez_swaps table and velodrome swaps were extracted from optimism.velodrome.ez_swaps table.
• Only OP swap volumes were considered.
• Swap volumes were examined in 4 different categories:
  • OP swapped out volume
  • OP swapped in volume
  • Total OP swaps
  • OP Swap balance
• The other parameters considered to calculate correlation are 1-day Lag and limiting examined period to 2 weeks after airdrop so we have stability in selling pressure.