Introduction

Thales is a protocol that allows for the creation of peer-to-peer parimutuel markets that anyone can join. A Parimutuel Market is a market where the collateral is locked in a pool and the final payout to participants is not determined until after the market-settling event finalizes. There are several types of markets, including Up and Down markets, ranged markets, exotic markets, and Overtime Markets.

Overtime markets is a fully on-chain sports AMM with Chainlink sports feeds, allowing users to bet on Soccer, Football, MMA, and Baseball. (Sources: FlipsideCrypto - Thalesmarket)

In this dashboard, we will be focused on the Overtime volume on Optimism. the main goal of this dashboard is to Identify the 5 most profitable traders on Overtime Markets in the last two weeks and find out how much has each wallet won by sport

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• All Data presented in this dashboard are extracted from the past 2 weeks (10-24 AUG 2022)
• Only Trades with Profit>0 are considered in this analysis.

• Please note that the bet amount in the above charts only shows the bet amount of those who have claimed their bet prize and made a profit.
• The ratio of profit per bet by Sports category:
  • MMA: 1.8X
  • Baseball: 0.96X
  • American football: 0.86X
  • Soccer: 0.79X

5 most profitable traders in the last two weeks made profit from 2 sports category: 3 from Baseball, 2 from MMA.

4 of the 5 most profitable traders in the last two weeks made a profit from a single game bet. but one of the traders made a profit from 3 games.

• the bettor with wallet address 0xb4079f1e529309eff78f634cb1a82397547e9d30 won 3 games bets in MMA category.

• The bettor 0xebbefa85adb58ae1c44a6db83d3b52315d4aea11 made $9,244 profit by betting $8,255 (1.1X profit) on Boston Red Sox VS New York Yankees

• The bettor 0xbf3cbc3efdfa389bcacdbadc79d6349b81b2593e made $8,256 profit by betting $2,800 (2.9X Profit) on Leon Edwards VS Kamaru Usman

• The bettor 0x4cc423d28183e05fbc5c70d1ae3424de4c4aacffmade $6,993 profit by betting $4,006 (1.7X Profit) on Cincinnati Reds VS Chicago Cubs

• More than 50% of the top 20 traders made profits from Baseball.

• The bettor 0x40a3cd10176e1d05a381d909ee9d64ed53d5b207 made $1,397 profit by betting $3.1 (450.2X profit) on Troyes VS Toulouse

• The bettor 0x78a4750440e38b5c34f92ad94e1ca0706771e5be made $128 profit by betting $2.27 (56.6X Profit) on Houston Astros VS Texas Rangers

• The bettor 0x2b133b6f1d3877ca592db3aed25168771b10df8emade $2,740 profit by betting $152.87 (17.9X Profit) on Leon Edwards VS Kamaru Usman

• 44% of the top 20 traders with the highest profit ratio made profits from MMA, 34% from Soccer, 21.7% from Baseball, and none from American football.

Methodology

• The bet transactions identifications are the same as my previous dashboard: Overtime Markets - Volume
• The Win Amount was identified by the origin_function_signature of 0x85149258 and burn event from optimism.core.fact_event_logs
• I also analyzed the dashboard from FlipsideCrypto Twitter. The problem with that analysis was that the betting amount was not accurate because it didn’t consider different tokens. so the profits calculated were incorrect. but the method of calculating the claim amount (Win Amount) is the same as here.

The MMA Sport had highest average profit among Sports.