🔎Hourly Price Comparison - Analysis🔍

• $LUNA against itself: There isn’t a significant difference in prices using the metrics from coingecko, but comparing the previous close price against the swap to stablecoins, we can see specific hours where the average swap price presents a significant increase or decrease.
• $LUNA vs $LUNC: It’s seems that both $LUNA and $LUNC have the same spike during in January 9, 17:00, and after that starts to correlate in differents ratios, we can see that the price from both currencies presents almost the same increases and decreases, but in the end $LUNA ends with a better increase ratio than $LUNC.
  • Growth Rates: These also correlates most of the hours, with the difference of $LUNA having a stronger movement than $LUNC.
• $LUNA vs $OSMO/$ATOM: Both IBC Currencies start to present the same Uptrend as luna since January 12, it’s seems that $LUNA increase sparks an increase in both IBC Currencies, but at the end both $ATOM and $OSMO decreases meanwhile $LUNA stays above them.
  • Growth Rates: $OSMO and $ATOM growth rate is almost the same, and at the end starts to have better correlation such as the negative growth in January 14 09:00, with the $LUNA having bigger ratios.

In the end it’s seems that $LUNA Price skyrocketed alongside $LUNC, $LUNA Movement price affects the performance of $LUNC, because in the end $LUNA stays above $LUNC.

$LUNA Swap Activity

Using terra.core.ez_swapswe’ll look to the swap activity of $LUNA, that means people selling $LUNA (from_currency = ‘uluna’) and people buying $LUNA (to_currency= ‘uluna’).

Summary

In January 9, 2023 Terra presented an increase in the price of both $LUNA & $LUNC==.

• As explained before it doesn’t seem to be a significant event which sparked an increase like for example $SOL and $BONK situation in Solana,
• But it’s seems to be correlated with the arrival of New Year and with January being a month where the Web3 Activity seems to increase.
  • In January 2023 different tokens presented their first significant increase after the events of the FTX Crash, so it’s seems that $LUNA was also one of the tokens affected.
• The increase of $LUNA also sparked an increase in differents IBC Tokens such as $ATOM, $OSMO and $LUNC.
  • $LUNA and $LUNC seems to have the best correlation in growth.
• The Increase of $LUNA happens in January 9 at 17:00, and in that single hour activity from Swaps and Transfers of $LUNA presented a spike.
  • After that, the activity seems to decrease again until January 15 where $LUNA price reached the $2.
    • In that day the amount of Activity reached again strongest spikes, and the Swap Volume was bigger than January 9.
• It’s seems that most swappers are Selling their $LUNA, with the amount of $LUNA being sold is always higher than the amount of $LUNA being bought.
  • Heavy DEX Traders were making a lot of swaps between $LUNA↔$axlUSDC which increase considerably the $LUNA Swap Volume.
• It’s seems that Most $LUNA Was sold for $axlUSDC, although some users also bought $ASTRO and $TPT showing again that Astroport and Terra Poker are important Projects in Terra.

Price Prediction

• In January 2023, all Tokens are trying to reach the price presented days before the FTX Crash, but at the moment neither $BTC or $ETH have reached the prices prior to the crash.
• $LUNA price prior to the FTX Crash reached $2.60 and at the moment of writing is at $2.08
• My Prediction is that $LUNA will stay at $2, and it will follow the tendencies of the Popular Tokens such as $ETC and $BTC.
• So we’ll need to stay vigilant for important events for the $ETH, $BTC and the IBC Tokens such as $ATOM, $OSMO.
  • Positive IBC Events will have an impact on all the Important IBC Tokens $LUNA included.
• But Traders in Terra seems to understand that $LUNA capped at $2 so they’re selling their $LUNA which ultimately may bring down the price of $LUNA closely below the $2.

Made by Popex404, Twitter Link Here

Hourly Swaps in January 9, Buying $LUNA

📈Hourly $LUNA Price Correlation with IBC Currencies📈

$LUNA Price Analysis

First we’ll look the $LUNA Price using the data from crosschain.core.fact_hourly_prices (Coingecko) in the left, and using terra.core.ez_swaps average swap to stablecoins (axlUSDC, axlUSDT) in the right.

Others IBC Currencies prices are from the crosschain.core.fact_hourly_prices (Coingecko OSMO, ATOM, LUNC).

Growth Rate using my SQL Recipe.

📈Hourly $LUNA Price since January 9📈

Hourly Swaps in January 9, Selling $LUNA

🔎$LUNA Selling Swaps - Analysis🔍

• Swaps: Activity skyrockets like the price, at 17:00 the amount of swaps goes from 81 in the previous hour to 521, and then starts decreasing again, because the price starts downtrending in the following hours.
• Swappers: There are 286 Unique Swappers in January 9, and at 17:00 102 were making swaps, after that the amount of swappers decreases.
• $LUNA Volume: Although Activity spiked at 17:00 the $LUNA sold was slighty higher 1 hour after at 18:00.
• Tokens Purchased: Most users were cashing out their $LUNA Purchasing stablecoins, with almost 70% of the total $LUNA being swapped for axlUSDC.
  • 28.8% of the total $LUNA was swapped using DEX Aggregators to receive $LUNA Again and trying to win extra $LUNA by Arbitrage Swaps.
  • After that with 1% of the total $LUNA people purchased ASTRO (Astroport Token) and TPT (Terra Poker Token), each of one with 0.5% of the total $LUNA.

There are 286 Unique Swappers in that day, but the Pie chart counts the same Traders again if they’re making swaps in differents hours, because of the hourly aggregation,

There are 73 Unique Swappers in that day, but the Pie chart counts the same Traders again if they’re making swaps in differents hours, because of the hourly aggregation,

Daily Swaps Since January 9, 2023

🔎$LUNA Selling Swaps - Analysis🔍

• Swaps: Activity skyrockets like the price, at 17:00 the amount of swaps reached 329 swaps, and then starts decreasing again.
• Swappers: There are 73 Unique Swappers in January 9, and at 17:00 30 were making swaps, after that the amount of swappers decreases.
• $LUNA Volume: Activity spiked at 17:00 and the $LUNA bought was the highest.
• Tokens Used: It’s seems that axlUSDC was the currency most used to purchase $LUNA, in the spike at 17:00 ATOM and axlUSDT was also used but in a small amount.

Swappers who Bought and Sold $LUNA in January 9

🔎Swappers - Analysis🔍

Here are only the swappers which bought and sold $LUNA in January 9.

Notable Swappers:

• terra1fhgqfnef2wvz6rnmuc9mxupwq0mmks7ka8eu9r: This is the User with most activity in January 9 regarding swaps, making a lot of inflow/outflow of $LUNA in these swaps, at the end of the day this user ends with +$1,976 doing swaps between $LUNA↔$axlUSDC
• terra1qyazntu0qycqavumqf0slmtgxpp70lqrtler8t: This user made one of the best net winnings in swaps, although it sold an extra 8,000 $LUNA, it’s seems that this user made a lot of profit buying cheapest $LUNA and selling at their spike, it’s seems this user is also an active player of Terra Poker Token, having most of their money in TPT/xTPT/axlUSDC.
• terra1vz4l7zfu6s3ffjrkay4pp5mq37u7kyj3k30zyl: This user sold most of their $LUNA at the moment it presented an increase, because he didn’t bought to much $LUNA it presents the best NET Winnings.

🔎Daily Swaps - Analysis🔍

Although January 9 presented a lot of activity in $LUNA Swaps, in January 15 the amount of $LUNA being Swapped was really high, with 32M of $LUNA being Swapped TO, everyday users were Selling Their $LUNA in high amounts instead of Buying it.

People are Selling their $LUNA now that their price reached the $2.

Significant Events

In January 9, @terra_money retweeted:

• Andromeda Protocol published a thread explaining their medium article from October 31, 2022 about How Andromeda will operate across the Cosmos IBC.
• Terra Poker Token announced an AMA set on January 10, about the grant proposal, their Terra Poker Roadmap and a Tournament Open-Beta QA Testing.
• Crescent Network announced a New Pair Live on Crescent DEX of $LUNA / $bCRE.
• Neptune Finance Published a community update about their launch in Terra.

Aside From the New Terra retweets, @TerraCasino_io a classic terra App announced a 8M $LUNC Burn.

It doesn’t seem to be a significant event which sparked the increase in $LUNA price on that day

$LUNA Transfer Activity

Using terra.core.ez_transfers we can see all the transfers in terra, with currency = ‘uluna’ we get all the transfers involving $LUNA and with TRANSFER_TYPE we can know if is an IBC Bridge or Internal Transfer.

• amount/pow(10,6) to get the $LUNA, Message_type to know the message and type of transfer (Swap, Transfer, Stake, etc).
• Count (distinct sender/receiver) for the users, and count (distinct tx_id) for the Transfers.

📈Hourly Transfers in January 9📈

📈Daily Transfers Since January 9📈

📈Users (Senders / Receivers)📈

🔎Hourly Transfers - Analysis🔍

Transfer Activity reached their spike in January 9 at 17:00, most of the activity in transfers is activity inside Terra, and Bridge activity using the IBC is really low.

During the 18:00 hour the Volume of $LUNA being bridged reached their spike with 6,700 $LUNA being Bridged.

Activity at 16:00 also presents a significant increase in consideration with the activity in the hours before meanwhile Activity at 18:00 presents a significant decrease.

🔎Daily Transfers - Analysis🔍

$LUNA Volume was almost the same between January 9,10 - 14,15 with January 15 being the day with most activity reaching their biggest spikes, also in January 15 the amount of $LUNA being bridged through IBC Reached their spike with 301k ($LUNA).

In Terra there are 3 principal contracts being deployed constantly.

• Cosmos.bank…MsgSend: This is the contract deployed in a simple transfer of $LUNA (Not Swaps), this contract has:
  • 2nd place in Total Transfers with 21,065 transfers (26.7%).
  • 1st place in Total $LUNA Volume, with 50,167,563 (71.5%) $LUNA Volume being sent in transfers.
  • 1st place in Total Senders with 9094 (71.6%) distinct users sending $LUNA.
  • 2nd place in Total Receivers with 5714 (20.9%) distinct users receiving $LUNA.
• Cosmos.wasm…ExecuteContract: This contract is deployed on different situations such as Swaps, Bonds, and other type of smart contracts created by Dapps in Terra.
  • But Most of the activity from this contract comes from Swaps, but still this contract it may have activity unrelated to swaps also.
  • 1st place in Total Transfers with 37,111 Transfers (47%).
  • 2nd place in Total $LUNA Volume with 16,008,149 (22.8%) $LUNA Volume being used in transfers with this contract.
  • 2nd place in Total Senders with 3520 (27.7%) distinct users sending $LUNA.
  • 4th place in Total Receivers with 2625 (9.6%) distinct users receiving $LUNA.
• Cosmos.distribution…WithdrawDelegatorReward: This contract is deployed when an user harvest their $LUNA rewards by staking $LUNA.
  • This contract is at 1st place in Receivers with 11,693 (42.8%) distinct users receiving $LUNA
  • 3rd place in Total Transfers with 12,700 (16,1%) Transfers.
  • 4th place in Total $LUNA Volume with 2.17% of the Total Volume.

These 3 contracts are the ones with most significant daily activity in Terra since January 9.

What is Terra 2.0?

After the Luna Crash in May 2022, Governance in Terra voted in favor to the proposal 1623, giving birth (forking their project) to a new Terra blockchain with a new Luna token ($LUNA).

Terra 2.0 or Terra (Because the old is renamed as Classic Terra), started their activity at the end of May 2022.

General Performance of $LUNA Price in 2022.

$LUNA was airdropped to users and projects which were active in the terra-classic, and this token since the beginning presented important price changes.

• Started in May 27, 2022 at 21:00:00 with a price of $5.15.
• After 3 days in May 30, 2022 at 21:00:00 reached their Maximum price of $10.52 followed by an explosive decrease reaching $2.16 in June 8.
• Since that day the $LUNA price range was of $2 +- ($0.5).
• In September 8 $LUNA starts to increase again reaching a value of $6.40 in September 10, but days after the price decreases to $2 again.
• After the FTX Crash $LUNA price goes below the $2 and never reached $2 again in 2022.
  • $LUNA price never reached a price of $1.20 or below.

$LUNA in 2023.

In New year, $LUNA price started uptrending since January 9, 2023, reaching for the first time since the FTX Crash a price of $2 and above. Today i’ll analyze the reasons behind this increase of Price in $LUNA, looking at differents metrics such as:

• Price Correlation - Transfer Activity - Swap Activity.

After that i’ll show you the important events from Terra in January 9, ending with a Summary of the Metrics and my $LUNA Price prediction.

Images Source: Terra 2.0, Luna 2.0