HODL or Sell?

    Q11. Identify accounts that have staked ETH with Lido when the price of ETH was much higher or much lower than it is now. Have they held or sold their stETH?

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    The next chart shows percentage of seller by ETH price.

    • ETH Price < 1500$ : 3.92%
    • 1500$ < ETH Price < 2000$ : 6.34%
    • 2000$ < ETH Price < 2500$ : 9.25%
    • 2500$ < ETH Price < 3000$ : 30.9%
    • 3000$ < ETH Price < 4000$ : 46.1%
    • ETH Price > 4000$ : 8.03%
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    Method

    First, I have found the stakers of Lido by using Ethereum.core.fact_event_logs tables and filter by ORIGIN_TO_ADDRESS = lower('0xae7ab96520de3a18e5e111b5eaab095312d7fe84') and event_name = 'Transfer' and event_inputs:from = '0x0000000000000000000000000000000000000000'.Then examined the latest User stETH balances. Those balances that are lower than total stakes are the seller, and those balances that are higher or equal to the total stakes are Hodler.

    analysis

    85K stakes have happened by different types of users on Lido since its inception.

    The next chart shows the percentage of Hodlers and sellers. The number of owners and sellers are similar. About 52.4% of Hodler users and 47.6% of all Lido users are sellers.

    Conclusion

    • The number of Holder and sellers is similar to each other.
    • Almost half of the users are sellers, and half of the users are Hodler.
    • When the price of a token drop, They Sell their tokens with panic and FOMO.

    The next chart shows the Total Daily Stake based on ETH price since Lido's inception.The largest steak volume on March 16, 2022 while the ETH price was 2700$.At the end of March, when ETH price increased to 3300$, The total staked decreased in comparison to the beginning of March.Again when the price decreased to below 3000$, the amount of the total stake increased.Right now, the price of ETH is below 2000$, and you can see the amount of the stakes has decreased significantly.

    The next chart shows percentage of Hodler by ETH price.

    • ETH Price < 1500$ : 1.81%
    • 1500$ < ETH Price < 2000$ : 8%
    • 2000$ < ETH Price < 2500$ : 8.32%
    • 2500$ < ETH Price < 3000$ : 21.7%
    • 3000$ < ETH Price < 4000$ : 47.3%
    • ETH Price > 4000$ : 12.9%

    The next chart shows users are the highest number of Hodler and sellers when ETH price was between 3000-4000$ dollars. As you can see, about 16K of stakers which staked in that range of ETH price are still holders, and 14.7K sold their amounts.

    Percentage HODL or Sell?