The Solana Smart Money

Question

Create a dashboard that tracks the most profitable traders on Solana (both in terms of token swaps and with NFTs). Use parameters to help define who falls under the category of most profitable and over what timeframe.

What has "smart money" been doing on Solana over the past month? Over the past week? Are they active traders or do they hold positions for days at a time? What projects have yielded the most profit for Solana traders? Are there any indicators of what their next trades or strategy will be? How does your dashboard compare to Hellomoon's smart money inflows and outflows?

Introduction

what is Solana blockchain?

Solana is a blockchain platform designed to host decentralized, scalable applications. Founded in 2017, it is an open-source project currently run by Solana Foundation based in Geneva, while the blockchain was built by San Francisco-based Solana Labs. Solana is much faster in terms of the number of transactions it can process and has significantly lower transaction fees than rival blockchains like Ethereum. The cryptocurrency that runs on the Solana blockchain—also named Solana (SOLUSD) and using the ticker symbol SOL—soared almost 12,000% in 2021 and at one point had a market capitalization of over $66 billion, making it the fifth-largest cryptocurrency by this measure at the time.[source]
what is NFT ?

Non-fungible tokens or NTFs are cryptographic assets which sit on a blockchain – that is, a distributed public ledger that records transactions. Each NFT contains unique identification codes that distinguish them from each other. This data makes it easy to transfer tokens between owners and to verify ownership. NFTs hold a value which is set by the market – i.e., supply and demand – and they can be bought and sold in the same way that physical assets can. NFTs are digital representations of assets – and can also represent real-world items such as artwork and real estate. Tokenizing real-world tangible assets in this way is considered by some users to make buying, selling and trading them more efficient, as well as potentially reducing the likelihood of fraud.[source]
what is swap?

A swap is a derivative contract through which two parties exchange the cash flows or liabilities from two different financial instruments. Most swaps involve cash flows based on a notional principal amount such as a loan or bond, although the instrument can be almost anything. Usually, the principal does not change hands. Each cash flow comprises one leg of the swap. One cash flow is generally fixed, while the other is variable and based on a benchmark interest rate, floating currency exchange rate, or index price. The most common kind of swap is an interest rate swap. Swaps do not trade on exchanges, and retail investors do not generally engage in swaps. Rather, swaps are over-the-counter (OTC) contracts primarily between businesses or financial institutions that are customized to the needs of both parties.[source]

Methodology

in this dashboard the following methods are used:

analyzing swap traders

in this section I want to analyze the behaver of swap traders. at the first I wrote a SQL code that figure out the overtime of some parameters, then I tried to find the best traders. at this dashboard I called traders with most profit the best trader.

It used solana.core.ez_token_prices_hourly table to find the price of tokens at moment and by that calculate the trading volume of each traders.

It used solana.core.fact_swaps table to find the swaps and swappers and the trading volumes.
analyzing NFT traders

in this section, at the first there are some overtime figures that follow some parameters over time and shows you the effevt that make on each other then tried to find the projects that have most sales volume and most number of sales then find the best NFT traders and categorizing traders.

It used solana.core.fact_nft_sales to find the details of NFT sales and find sellers and buyers details.

It used solana.core.ez_token_prices_hourly table to find the price of tokens at moment and by that calculate the trading volume of each traders.

It used solana.core.dim_nft_metadata to find the details of NFTs that sold and finding the project name of NFTs.

Part 2 : analyzing NFT traders

in this section, tried to show you NFT traders behavior overall, at first there is some figures that show parameters overtime after that there is some figures to find best NFT traders that have most profit.

by checking the daily number of swaps and Sol price, this is obvious that after Apr 2022 the price of solana has a decreasing rate then the number of swaps has a increasing rate. it can be conclude that by changing the rate of price the number of swaps can increased. after FTX hack at Nov 10,2022 the price of solana has a large drop so can see the number of swaps and number of swapper has a increasing jump, it approves my opinion about changing price can make a great change in trend of number of swaps and number of swappers.

the 5fY8fiTCpZZQz9A4w9Vz8brFfFL3P9pxLp6vHLxNS46y wallet has the most profit from trading that is 1.8B $.
the 7Wzj5DpQomghvnNSQ1ntd619kVhhaoNND98qpYoMW6W9 wallet has the most profit this month from trading that is 6.3M $.
by categorizing the number of traders by profit, it could be found that the most number of traders loss their money from trading that is 1.47M traders and 78.3% of total traders. after that traders with profit between 11 and 100$ have most number that is 139.11k and 7.38% of total traders. as an intresting result could mentioned that 7986 traders have profit more than 10M % that is 0.42% of total traders.
by categorizing the number of traders by number of swaps, it could be found that the most number of traders have number of swaps less than 10 swaps that is 66.2% of total traders. after that most number of traders have number of swaps between 10 and 100 swaps that is 31.1% of total traders.

by checking the daily figures, it could be conclude that in Apr by droping in price of solana the number of NFT sales have a little increase and it is not like number of swaps that mentioned in previous section. so could conclude the solana price does not have a great influence on number of sales.
after FTX hack, from previous section we saw that the number of swaps has a increasing jump but at this section from above figures it could be conclude that the number of NFT sales has a decreasing jump after FTX hack.

by analyzing the number of sales of each project, ten figure out the top project with most number of sales and then top projects with most sales volume the following result founded:
- the ABC project has the most number of sales that is 61.79k sales and after that is Degen Apes project that have 49.35k sales.
- the Degen Apes project has most sales volume(usd) that is 283.03M dollars and after that is Aurory project has 179.39M dollars.
the H7JxZCcY5cnTr7CjiZZj7cbhk1zH6gBCe7ehKqCVAfsx wallet has most profit in NFT trading that is 3.13M dollars.
the Bi2oPP49bi5H7GNsDhbE9eEqFBcVjjqQR7qxyYq6Ee2g wallet has most profit in NFT trading this month that is 337.15k dollars.
by categorizing the NFT traders by profits that earned, it could be see that most number of NFT traders lost their moneys that is 24.18k traders that is 51.1% of total NFT traders, after that in second stage most number of NFT traders earned profit between 101 and 1000$.

Thanks for reading my dashboard, please share your insight about it with me :grinning:
link of tweet that I share my dashboard: Link

Part 1 : analyzing swap traders