Try Quests to earn cryptoOP Price vs Swapper Activity
Question:
Is there a relationship between OP price and trade volume?
Introduction:
in this article i want to find is there any relationship between on-chain op swaps and price of OP.for better understanding and result i review this swaps from two aspect:
- ==Swap Volume==
- ==Swapper Count==
also i use Velodrome and Sushi swaps info as source and get this data from Flipside.
keywords:
Buyyer: who give other coins and get OP
seller: who give OP and get other coins
MA7: moving average of last seven 7 this calculated from this formula avg(parameter_that_want_to_find_ma7) over (order by date rows between 7 preceding and 0 following)
Swap (Trade) Volume: number of $OP exchanged (not $USD)
as first step i put daily swap volume with OP price togher. as data shows, it seems OP price follow Swap Volume after some days. But is there any factor that
- Volume for each Dex
- Volume Buy and Sell
- review relationship with MA7
Volume for each Dex
from two sources of sushi and velodrome data show expect first days of launch OP in other days we don’t see any significant volume in sushi and all of volume came from Velodrome.
So according this this charts, we have just one player and all effects came from this player.
> we can’t get any reasonable result from ==Volume for each Dex==.
Volume Buy and Sell
> price follows demand.
All of us hear this sentence and know when volume of buy more than sell price goes up and when sell pressure goes up price drop. with this mind I started to find relation with price and buy and sell. but some things happen. first except first day, all days buy volume is much more than sell volume. but price drop this show buy and sell volume doesn’t always happen. in these two Dapps and there is a lot of ways to trade (Cex, OTC) and seems volume in other ways much more effective than on-chain. but if look closer at Sell and buy Percentage. clearly see if in some days volume of buy goes up, we can expect price goes up but not same ratio.
> price has some relation with buy volume but not same ration
Review relationship with MA7
the Last parameter of this side belongs to MA7 Swap Volume. main reason that u put these parameters in my review is price most of time has delay with Volume. So, I think maybe price doesn’t change with volume in big picture and price is effect of volume in last days. so I created MA7 and clearly see price has best fit with MA7 and even in half of time has same ratio.
> price has best fit with MA7 and seems to have a direct relationship
Daily Unique Traders
daily unique trader has wiered. in half of days don’t have relation even with swaps count. for example we have highest swpas count in 28 Jul to 5 Aug but don’t see any any change in unique traders. also from 25 Sep volume and swap count has decreased but unique swapper has increased. data of unique swapper clearly shows they don’t have direct relationship with op price and this parameter can’t use for getting result
> unique swapper doesn’t follow OP price
in case we can’t see direct relation between unique trader and swap count maybe came from point that some other bots o other contracts use this contracts and so number of swap increase but doesn’t show new user
Buyer vs Sellers
in last part we see buy volume has direct relation with swap count but not same ration. so in this part i decide to see does this buyer of sellers has same behavior like volume. but as we see percentage of sell and buyer doesn’t change after first days of launch and about 50/50 ratio (maybe number of sell a bit more than buy)
> number of buy and sell doesn’t relation with OP price
MA7 Daily Users
as data show in first step and see number of daily swaps has some daily we can result MA7 best fit with OP price and result confirm this choise. but as we see this relation doesn’t fit as much as Volume fit
> among swapper and swap count parameter MA7 swap count best fit with OP price
Conclusion
according data and chart this result can get
- the Parameters of ==Volume== better show effect on Volume than ==Swap Count==
- the Parameters with MA7 has best fit and show on-chain info doesn’t effect of price and a bit time needed
- While the number of sell and buy has same number but buy volume has higher volume and better relation with OP price
- ==data show swap volume has direct effect on price==
There is a lot of options that affect price and some of them even there is outside of blockchain. in this article i focus just on-chain swaps and ignore effect of other parameters.