[Ethereum] - Flash Bounty: Post Merge Behavior
> ## Bounty Question: The merge has occurred. How have users responded in days that followed? Analyze any notable trends or outliers you can see since ETH switched to POS. Compare this to user behavior in the days and weeks leading up. What major changes can you see?
๐ About Ethereum
> Since its launch in 2015, Ethereum has established its place in the blockchain industry as a popular decentralized computing platform, allowing thousands of projects to be created on its blockchain. While it remains one of the most relevant blockchains, Ethereumโs current infrastructure can't scale its operations in a way that can attend to growing global demand. In order to combat the lack of scalability, the Ethereum team proposed a set of upgrades that would lead to an evolved Ethereum blockchain. These upgrades are the Beacon Chain, The Merge, The Surge, The Verge, The Purge, and The Splurge.
๐ The Merge
> The Merge is Ethereumโs next serious step to tackling scalability issues. Simply put, it integrates the two existing independent chains in the Ethereum ecosystem: the execution layer and the consensus layer (Beacon Chain).
> The Ethereum mainnet is expected to merge into the Proof of Stake system coordinated by the Beacon Chain in September 2022. After The Merge, the ecosystem will only use a Proof of Stake mechanism to secure its network.



๐ Findings
> * The number of transfers does not show much difference in terms of the total number and the incompleteness of the data on September 24, before and after the Merge. But it can be seen that there has been a slight increase around the Merge phenomenon, and the second day in terms of the number of daily transfers among these 21 days is exactly the day after the Merge, which is September 16.
> * But among all these examined parameters, Liquid Staking has shown the most obvious changes. Notably, immediately after the Merge happened (even on the same day as September 15th), the number of times users staked their ETHs grew significantly. Since there is only one day in the pre-Merge period, the number of stakes can be more than the number of daily stakes in the post-Merge period.
> * In terms of new users entering the Ethereum network, we can also see a slight increase. In almost all days after the Merge, the number of new users is more than the days before the Merge. In these 10-day intervals, 433k more new users came to the Ethereum network in the post-Merge period.
> * A slight increase in the number of transfers, an increase in the number of new users and a sharp increase in the number of Liquid Stakings
> ## Basic Metrics: Transactions, Success Rate, Blocks, Users and Fees
> ## A Little About Swaps and Swappers
> ## A Little about NFTs: Mints, Sales and Transfers
> ## A Little About Transfers and Liquid Stakings and of course New Users
> # Methodology
> # Introduction
> * The following basic code was used directly or indirectly in almost all queries of this bounty:
select
case
when block_number < '15537351' then 'Before The Merge'
when block_number >= '15537351' then 'After The Merge' end as before_or_after,*
FROM ethereum.core.fact_Transactions
> * The first block number of Ethereum network after Merge is: ==15537351==. And this block number was considered as the boundary between the Ethereum network in the era of PoW and PoS.
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> * Although it is mentioned in the question that we should check the behavior of users after the Merge with their behavior in the previous weeks leading up to the Merge, but it seems to me that the days can be put on an equal scale and have an equal number of days. Before and after Merge is examined. The same method was used in this dashboard. The 10 days before and 10 days after the Merge were evaluated (plus the day of the Merge itself), and in total this review covers the last 21 days.
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> * First, the basic parameters of the Ethereum network were examined. Number of transactions, number of users, paid fees, transaction success rate and number of blocks.
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> * Then, as one of the most important activities of users, the number of swaps and swappers was evaluated before and after Merge.
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> * Then, another important activity of users, the NFT market, was examined. In this context, the number of mints, the number of sales and transfers of NFTs were obtained in these two intervals.
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> * At the end, the status of transfers, Liquid Staking and new users were also obtained.
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> * In this dashboard, all these parameters were checked superficially, because the goal was to check if the behavior of users underwent unique changes due to the Merge phenomenon, and if this happened, in which parameter or section did this happen. The final conclusion can be a suitable option for a deeper investigation.
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> * After Merge compared to before Merge: increase in number of blocks and users, decrease in paid fees.
> * Dramatic change cannot be seen before and after Merge.
> * In the post-Merge period, we see a clear increase in all three parameters related to NFTs.
> * A slight increase in the number of transfers, an increase in the number of new users and a sharp increase in the number of Liquid Stakings
> # Conclusion
๐ Findings
> * The number of transactions in the period before and after Merge ==is approximately equal== (after Merge, the number of transactions is 10k more)
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> * The trend shows that in the few days before and after the Merge phenomenon, the number of transactions has fluctuated (a decrease before the Merge and an increase after it), but after some time, the same relatively stable trend that existed before the Merge has been established.
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> * Transaction success rate after Merge is about 0.2% less than before. In this parameter, there is no big difference between before and after Merge.
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> * The lowest success rate in these 21 days occurred in the post-Merge period and the highest success rate occurred in the pre-Merge period. Interestingly, immediately after the Merge took place on September 15, the transaction success rate showed a decrease of 1.7%..
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> * In terms of the number of unique users, a clearer advantage can be seen in the post-Merge period. (by a margin of over 230k unique users). It can also be seen in the daily graph of the status of the number of daily unique users that in the first days after Merge, the number of daily unique users shows a relative increase. (27% growth on September 17 compared to September 16). After that, the number of daily users on most days was more than before Merge.
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> * The transaction fee was one of the topics that many rumors were heard about before the Merger, which is supposed to drop dramatically with the Merge, But the charts do not show us huge difference. For example, in the 10-day period before Merge, the highest amount of fees paid in one day is on September 8, when about 2340ETH was paid as fees. The highest amount of fee paid in one day in the post-Merge period is also on September 21, when 1760ETH was paid as transaction fee. ==This means a 25% reduction in transaction fees.==
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> * The amount of fee paid for almost equal number of transactions before and after Merge is significantly different. A further 5k ETH was paid out in the pre-Merge period. (โ) The point here is that this decrease in fees cannot be directly attributed to the Merge phenomenon because one of its goals has never been to increase capacity and, as a result, reduce transaction fees.
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> * The number of daily blocks has always been above 7k blocks per day after the Merge, with an ==increase of at least 5%==, while the number of blocks before the Merger did not exceed 6100 in any day.
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> * The number of unique users after the Merge is 230k more than before the Merge. The number of blocks has also increased significantly. More than 5k more blocks were produced in these equal intervals for after Merge, while the number of transactions was almost equal.
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> * After Merge compared to before Merge: increase in number of blocks and users, decrease in paid fees.
๐ Findings
> * The status of swaps before and after Merge was not much different in terms of number (50k more swaps before Merge).
> * The number of swappers is the same, the shares between before and after Merge are the same in both the parameters of the number of swaps and the number of swappers. (50.9:49.1 in favor of the interval before Merge)
> * Dramatic change cannot be seen before and after Merge.
๐ Findings
> * Sales ---> Mint ---> Transfer In this path, as we go from right to left, the contribution of each parameter increases in the interval after Merge.
> * Clearly, in the early days after the Merge, all three parameters had an upward trend, and in the final days before the Merge, all three parameters had a downward trend. However, the growth percentage of these three parameters is more different in these intervals, and you can see the lowest growth rate in the NFT sales parameter, while there has been the highest growth in the transfer of NFTs.
> * In the post-Merge period, we see a clear increase in all three parameters related to NFTs.
> # References
> * Ethereum Logo Gifs > * Merge Image > * Inspired by Ali3N#85's dashboard on Liquid Staking