[Polygon] - Active Addresses

    Bounty Question: How many addresses on the MATIC network are active? What’s the daily evolution of active addresses? Is the activeness related some how to the price?

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    Introduction


    What Is Polygon (MATIC)?

    Polygon (previously Matic Network) is the first well-structured, easy-to-use platform for Ethereum scaling and infrastructure development. Its core component is Polygon SDK, a modular, flexible framework that supports building multiple types of applications.

    Polygon effectively transforms Ethereum into a full-fledged multi-chain system (aka Internet of Blockchains). This multi-chain system is akin to other ones such as Polkadot, Cosmos, Avalanche etc. with the advantages of Ethereum’s security, vibrant ecosystem and openness.

    Polygon (formerly Matic Network) is a Layer 2 scaling solution backed by Binance and Coinbase. The project seeks to stimulate mass adoption of cryptocurrencies by resolving the problems of scalability on many blockchains.

    The $MATIC token will continue to exist and will play an increasingly important role, securing the system and enabling governance. (Source)

    Methodology


    The following methods are used in this dashboard:

    • First, I defined and extracted addresses whose last successful transaction was before 2022 as "Dead Addresses".

    • Then I divided the remaining addresses (each of which had at least 1 successful transaction in 2022) into three categories in terms of activity:

      1. Semi-Active addresses
      2. Active addresses
      3. Super Active addresses
    • My definition for dividing addresses into these categories was the minimum number of transactions per week. Since there were a full 14 weeks during this period, I defined addresses that averaged less than one transaction per week (with a total of less than 14 successful transactions) as "semi-active" addresses. I defined addresses that performed an average of more than 10 transactions per week (with a total of more than 140 successful transactions) as "super active" addresses, and the rest of the addresses as "active" addresses.

    • Then I examined the status of these three categories of addresses on a daily, weekly and monthly basis by two parameters:

      1. The number of addresses
      2. The number of transactions performed by them

    Results

    Part I: Overall Review

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    • The number of dead addresses is so high that their number is higher than the total number of addresses that have been active in this quarter. Interestingly, of the 12.69 million addresses that have successfully traded on Polygon so far, nearly 60 percent have not had a successful transaction in the last quarter. The winter of the crypto market seems more real than it looks.

    • Among other addresses, semi-active ones are the most numerous. They are at least 4.5 times more active and about 30 times more super active.

    • Of course, for a closer look, we should separate the newly created addresses and evaluate their behavior separately. Here, because a average value is used to define the addresses type, the reviews will not be completely accurate.

    Part II: Daily Review

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    Semi-Active addresses:
    • A 25% reduction in the first 50 days with a slight slope
    • Then a rapid increase of 25% in a few days and a fixed number of semi-active addresses around 100k daily addresses for about 1 month
    • And finally a drop of more than 50% in the last month
    Active addresses:
    • Except for the two uptrends in the first 25 days of May and the first 20 days of April, a downward trend can be seen in the other days.
    • Due to this dominant downward trend, a drop of more than 60% can be seen in the number of daily active addresses.
    Super Active addresses:
    • About 50 days ascending, 50 days descending. This is a summary of what happened to super-active addresses. On April 20, the peak is almost formed, and although on May 5, there was the highest number of super-active addresses, but from April 20, we see a downward trend, which shows a 17% decrease in the number of daily addresses. The trend in the last days is not such that one can think of a positive change in the situation.
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    Semi-Active addresses:
    • For about two months, the number of daily transactions by semi-active trend addresses has been almost neutral. Then, after a 20-day wide peak (which peaked on April 30 with about 292k transactions), a relatively sharp drop occurred and about 50% of the number of daily transactions by these addresses was reduced. This month coincided exactly with the UST depeg and the negative shock to the entire crypto market.
    Active addresses:
    • In the case of active addresses, the trends are reasonably similar to the trend for semi-active addresses, except that the changes and fluctuations are less intense.
    Super active addresses:
    • The trend of superactive addresses is slightly different. Of course, they have also been affected by the events of the last month, but the unique thing about this category of addresses is that the trend of these addresses was upward before the deuteg UST and reached its peak in the first and critical week of depeg. Is. It seems that these addresses have tried to make the most of the fluctuations in those days, and after stabilizing those dire conditions, they no longer show a desire to perform the transaction at the previous level. (25% reduction in the number of transactions)

    • Super active addresses (equal to 3% of semi-active addresses) have recorded an astonishing number of daily transactions. The number of transactions performed by them is generally more than 10 times the number of transactions performed by semi-active addresses and several times the number of active addresses.

    • The cumulative chart also shows the significant growth rate of the number of transactions performed by superactive addresses, while the slope of the chart related to active and semi-active addresses is very low.

    Part III: Weekly Review

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    Semi-Active addresses:
    • Interestingly, in the weeks of March, almost the same number of unique addresses were traded during a week. But in April, there are valley and peak fluctuations that lead to the best week of the 101-day period, with more than 600k unique addresses. But in May and the first days of June (the same period as the UST depeg) we see a very sharp decline in the number of weekly addresses. After the last week of April until the first week of June, there is a more than 80% decrease in the number of unique weekly addresses.
    Active and Super Active addresses:
    • Their general trend is like a hill (a very wide peak). The culmination of each of these trends is different. It was for active addresses in late March and for active ones in early May (and just before the LUNA disaster). There has been a sharp decline in semi-active addresses for both types of addresses, but the percentage reductions are interesting. About 50% reduction in active addresses and about 35% reduction in super active addresses. This may well explain the difference between professional and novice users. Those who have experience know better than newcomers that every market also has very bitter days, but they believe that every cloud has a silver lining ...
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    Semi-Active addresses:
    • Trend is very similar to the status of the number of addresses. But the downward trend in May is a little lower here. (65% vs. more than 80%)
    Active and Super Active addresses:
    • Like semi-active addresses, here the trends are similar to the previous section. The difference is that now the reduction in the number of weekly transactions in all three types of addresses is something between 65 and 70%, and no positive sign can be seen that is evidence of a change in market trends. It seems that given the irreversible effects of the UST depeg on the crypto market and the US inflation crisis and the Federal Reserve's measures to control it, we have to see the bear market situation for a long time.

    Part IV: Monthly Review

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    Semi-Active addresses:
    • There has been no sharp fluctuation in the number of semi-active addresses in these three months. There is a difference of about 13% between the number of unique addresses in April (as the month in which the most unique addresses traded) compared to May. This sharp difference (compared to the daily and weekly status) indicates that during the month of May, semi-active users probably performed most of their activities over a period of several days.
    Active and Super Active addresses:
    • The continuous growth of the number of active addresses during these three months is very interesting, and more interestingly, in May, the largest number of unique addresses was recorded. Here we can see a growth of 15% during these three months for both types.
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    Semi-active and Active addresses:
    • According to the points mentioned in the previous sections, this trend of increasing in April and decreasing in May is reasonable for the number of transactions.
    Super Active addresses:
    • But the most interesting chart is related to the status of super actives addresses that have more transactions in May than two months ago. Of course, this was not a far-fetched conclusion, given the results of the weekly survey. However, the difference in the way users look at the market and its conditions seems very interesting and requires more detailed studies.

    Key Findings


    • Crypto winter seems to have arrived now.

    • The difference in the way different types of users look at the market and its specific conditions seems very interesting and requires more detailed and detailed studies. Admittedly, any address with more than 140 transactions in this 101-day period can be considered a super-active user, can not have an accurate scientific basis, but in itself can be a source to start an interesting study of differences in behavior Users are in specific market conditions.

    • Although professionals have kept pace with the downturn in the market, the fact that most of the superactive address transactions took place in the first week of UST depeg shows, in an interesting way, their different behavior. Experience has shown them that even in the darkest days of a market, even productive activities can be done to do less damage.