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Introduction
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In this Analysis, You will Read About ETH tokens. The price of Ethereum has sank in recent days - how does it compare to other tokens amid a general market downturn?
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I looked for evidence of any potential causes for ETH's struggle.
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I went through the ETH token and analyzed these parameters:
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Comapre ETH token Vs. Token.
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Thave total and average volume that went through platforms.
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Transfer from CEX to Ethereum and Ethereum to chain based on ETH token.
Analyzed by Hess - Reading Time Almost 10 Min. \n
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Method
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I picked three parameters for the following ETH price.
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Compare the ETH price with the selected token from the parameter.
- I used Fact hourly price token and extracted ETH price and other tokens.
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Daily Swap from and to ETH
- I used DEX swap and put ETH as a symbol in and Symbol out.
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Transfer ETH to CEX and vice versa.
- I extracted cex address from cross-chain label and joined with ETH token transfer.
Swaps From and To ETH token
From now and go on, Only the N_Days parameter works on these charts.
Buying and selling a token has a direct relation to its price. I examined the swaps from and to the ETH token.
- The total daily number of swappers from ETH was higher than swappers to ETH over the last 60 days. I know that swappers or transactions are not important and volume is important but I prefer to check them.
- The average number of swappers to ETH per day was 20K and the average number of swappers from ETH per day was 25.2K.
- The highest number of swap transactions from and to ETH was after the FTX crash. The average number of swap transactions to ETH per day was 56K and the average number of swap transactions from ETH per day was 71.8K.
Transfers to CEXs and vice versa
During normal days, transfers from and to CEXs can be important for a token or maybe we can predict the big player’s movement. But FTX was an alert for users that don’t hold their assets in CEXs and keep it in private wallets.
- Until October 9, The total daily number of users that transferred from and to CEXs was similar to each other. But after October 8, The total daily number of users that transferred their ETH to Ethereum was much higher than transfers ETH from Ethereum to CEX. After the FTX crash, The difference increased more.
- Based on transactions, Until October 9, 55% of transactions were to Ethereum and 45% of transactions were from Ethereum. But After October 9, The daily share of transactions to Ethereum increased up to 80%. Overall, 25.5% of transactions were from Ethereum and 74.5% of transactions were from Ethereum.
What is ETHEREUM?
- Ethereum is a decentralized, open-source blockchain with smart contract functionality. Ether is the native cryptocurrency of the platform. Among cryptocurrencies, ether is second only to bitcoin in market capitalization. Ethereum was conceived in 2013 by programmer Vitalik Buterin.
What is ETH TOKEN?
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Ether is the transactional token that facilitates operations on the Ethereum network. While ether is the cryptocurrency of the Ethereum network, metaphorically speaking, it is more accurate to refer to it as the "fuel" of the network.
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What happened to ETH token after FTX crash?
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Ethereum (ETH) price suffered a meltdown in the aftermath of the FTX exchange collapse and hack. The hacker of the now-bankrupt crypto exchange, FTX, still holds 200,735 ETH tokens. Analysts have predicted further decline in Ethereum and set $840 as the last bid for Dollar Cost Averaging.
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The wallet address of the exploiter holds 200,735 ETH tokens. Based on on-chain analysis of the wallet, the exploiter is rapidly swapping Ethereum for renBTC (Bitcoin on other blockchains) and attempting to cash out the funds. Blockchain security expert PeckShield shared details of the swap in a tweet.
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Ethereum's price crumbled under massive selling pressure and yielded 8% overnight losses for holders, following recent developments. ETHUSD shed close to 30% of its value in November as traders watched the FTX saga unravel.
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Experts believe that if the attacker sells 200,735 (wallet balance of the exploiter) Ether tokens in the open market, the second-largest cryptocurrency could bleed aggressively. The selling pressure could result in Ethereum’s carnage. However, it remains to be seen whether the hacker sells ETH on exchanges or swaps it for other cryptocurrencies before cashing out the stolen funds.
Full Analysis
Compare ETH price with selected token
I picked the WBTC token and compare it with ETH. You can change the WBTC token from the parameters. Do not forget, You should type the token name in UPCASE. For example MATIC.
- I compared the ETH price with WBTC in the last 60 days. As you can see, until October 24, The WBTC moved better in comparison to the ETH price. After that time, ETH prices increased and ETH growth became like WBTC. For Almost 10 days, ETH price increased by about 10% while BTC price increased 5%.
- When FTX romurs spreaded, The price of ETH and BTC dropped so bad. The ratio of drop was
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- In the below chart, you can read the daily price changes of tokens from the price of tokens 60 days ago. If you change the N_Days, You will see the daily price difference of tokens from the price token in selected N_Days. For example, If you enter 90 as a N_Days parameter, You will see the daily price changes of tokens in comparison to the token prices 90 days ago.
- Until October 22, The WBTC price changes were positive but ETH was negative on most days. For Almost 10 days, The daily price changes of tokens were positive but when FTX meltdown, The price of ETH and WBTC became lower than 60 days ago. In three days, both tokens dropped.
- Right now, The ETH price is 152 US dollars lower than the ETH price 60 days ago. Also, The WBTC price change right now is 2.5K lower than the price of WBTC 60 days ago.
As you can see, I selected WBTC and N_days: 60. In order to understand the parameters and chart better, Let me explain to you first. We have 2 parameters. One Token and one N_Days. Right now I put WBTC and 60 as parameters. It means I compared the daily price change percentage with their price 60 days ago. For example, The ETH price 60 days ago was 1.3K US dollars. Now, I compared the daily price change percentage of ETH with 1.3K US dollars.
- Until October 24, The highest growth of WBTC was 5% while the highest growth of ETH was 3%. WBTC price had so many ups and downs but never became negative. After October 24, the ETH price increased by up to 19% while the WBTC price increased by up to 11%. When FTX crashed, The ETH price dropped 6.9% while WBTC dropped 12%. The highest drop percentage for ETH was 17.2% and WBTC was 18.7%. Right now, the ETH price is 13% lower than the ETH price 60 days ago and WBTC is 15% down from the WBTC price in 60 days ago.
Not, It’s time to examine the important part of this analysis. I extracted the daily swap volume from and to ETH tokens in the last 60 days.
- Before I dig into the charts, I can see the total swap volume from ETH was much much higher than the swap volume from ETH token.
- Until October 19, The total swap volume from ETH was similar to the swap volume to ETH but after that time, The total daily swap volume to ETH didn’t change too much but the swap volume to ETH increased significantly. A day after the FTX crash, Users swapped 10B US dollars from ETH. But this amount wasn’t the highest volume. On November 10, Users swapped 26B US dollars from ETH while they bought only 1.7B US dollars of ETH. It is true that after November 10, The total daily swap volume from ETH decreased but on the other side, the total daily swap volume from ETH decreased too.
- The daily swap net volume of ETH is not in a good position. The current swap net of ETH is -147B US dollars based on the swap in the last 60 days. Over the last 60 days, The daily swap net of ETH was negative. This is proof that shows ETH is DOWN badly! However, We have seen before that in one day, These numbers would change.
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- In my opinion, If users swapped their ETH for Stablecoins it could be a piece of good news. Because soon or later, They will swap to ETH again. But according to the below charts, based on transactions and volume, Users swapped to other coins instead of Stablecoins. Only 33% of transactions were swapped to Stablecoins. Based on Volume, Users swapped more than 130B US dollars to other tokens in comparison to 36B US dollars swapped to Stablecoins. About 100B US dollars higher. This swapped volume can help the Ethereum price in the next few days but we should wait until then. Due to the bad news about the ETH token, I don’t think users swapped back to ETH now.
- Unlike transactions and Users, The total daily volume of ETH from and to the Ethereum chain was similar. The highest volume of ETH transferred after November 6. The average volume from Ethereum per day was 404M US and to Ethereum was 431M US dollars.
- The daily net of ETH was positive most days. Especially in November. The current net of ETH is 1.6BUS dollars.
Conclusion
- The short conclusion is ETH is down badly! Over the last 60 days ago, The Swap net volume is -147B US dollars. It means users sold their ETH in comparison to bought ETH. The difference is too high. Also, Most users swapped their ETH for other tokens. Maybe they see potential in other tokens and do not interest in ETH. In My Opinion, Ethereum needs new players with new money to SAVE ETH tokens at least for the short term. I don’t say that ETH is dead. Maybe other tokens faced this problem but Maybe rumors are true and ETH price will drop to 650-700 US dollars. Also, We have an FTX hacker with a huge amount of ETH. This action will cause selling pressure for ETH.
ALL CODES AND CONTENTS WERE WRITTEN BY HESS.