How many Lil Nouns have been sold on a secondary exchange within 24 hours of being minted?

On any given day, anywhere between 0 to 14 freshly minted Lil Nouns get resold on the secondary market within a day of their mint.

As time passes since the project launch, a similar (if slightly smaller) number of Lil Nouns gets resold on the secondary market daily (see chart above), but the number of Lil Nouns resold in their first 24 hours has declined more noticeably, with more buyers preferring to wait (see chart below):

Which Lil Noun’s have the biggest difference (positive or negative) between their mint price and secondary sale price?

The chart below reveals that the majority of Lil Nouns that got resold within a day of mint were sold for a higher price. However, there are also notable exceptions, including Lil Nouns #247 and #1742 that minted exceptionally high at 3.6 ETH and 1.58 ETH respectively:

On average, between 3-4 Lil Nouns daily are quickly resold on the secondary market:

Are there any common traits among these Lil Nouns?

The Lil Nouns that were resold within 24 hours of minting have an equal distribution of background colors (cool vs. warm background):

The most expensive among Lil Nouns that were sold within 24 hours of minting - Lil Noun #545:

Image source: Etherscan.

The most popular body types/colors are #27 (Teal-light) with 11 quick resales, and #29 (yellow) with 9 quick resales within a day of minting:

However, the top resale price among these (2.4 ETH) belongs to a cool-toned background Lil Noun: #545

(see sale transaction on Etherscan):

The price distribution by body for these sales is as follows:

By accessory type, the most Lil Nouns that were resold within the first day had either accessory #22 (Body-gradient-redpink), #34 (Checkers-big-red-cold), or #104 (Txt-a2+b2).

Price distribution by accessory:

The most popular Lil Noun heads on this mint-and-quick-resale markets are #56 (cookie) and #228 (werewolf), with 4 resales each:

Price distribution for different heads:

As for the last trait, glasses, many types come close in popularity, but the top glasses on this quick-resale market are #3 (black) and #19 (yellow-orange-multi) with 11 sales each:

Price distribution by glasses type, with black glasses (#3) being the most expensive:

The biggest difference between the mint and sale prices (among the lil nouns that got resold within 24 hours of mint) is for Lil Noun #247. It was auctioned off at mint for an entire 3.6 ETH - a hefty price which was not matched on the secondary market, leading to a large mint-sale price difference but with a negative sign.

However, this is not a representative Lil Noun. Only 24 of the NFTs were sold for less than their winning auction bid (aka mint price). The majority of the profitable sales in the first 24 hours have yielded up to 0.5 ETH of profit, although none of the profitable sales reached the profit of 1 ETH:

Introduction

Lil Nouns (lilnouns.wtf) are a spinoff NFT collection forked from Nouns. While pixelated Nouns get minted and auctioned off at the rate of 1 per day, Lil Nouns, which launched in May 2022 a little over 9 months after the original Nouns launch, are generated more frequently. There is a new Lil Noun minted and auctioned off every 15 minutes.

Similarly to Nouns, when a Lil Noun is minted, it goes into the protocol's Auction House, which accepts bids by charging the bidder's wallet (and returning the ETH if/when that wallet gets outbid). At the end of the auction, the highest bidder is the winner. The auction is then settled (the winner or someone else pays gas) and the NFT sent from the Auction House (AH proxy wallet) to the winning wallet address, a new Lil Noun is minted, and the process begins anew.

For the first 5 years of the project, every 10th Lil Noun gets sent to the protocol's multisig, and every 11th Lil Noun goes to the Nouns DAO to compensate them for their involvement in the project.

This analysis examines the "hot" Lil Nouns that get immediately resold on the secondary market, within a day (24 hours) of their mint.

Methodology

This article analyzes the mint and sales activity of Lil Noun NFTs, contract address 0x4b10701Bfd7BFEdc47d50562b76b436fbB5BdB3B.

When the article refers to the 'mint price' for a Lil Noun NFT, it describes the ETH amount of the winning auction bid for that NFT. Because of the unique Nouns and Lil Nouns mint and distribution mechanism, technically the NFTs are minted for free into the protocol's treasury. However, the price at which the original owner receives their Lil Noun is the amount of the auction's winning (highest) bid, and this is the closest in intent to a 'mint price' for any NFT minted in a more traditional way.

The SQL query to isolate the data for Nouns/Lil Nouns traits was provided by Flipside Crypto as part of the bounty question.

The traits appear in the data as numerical values 0-N. A Flipside Discord discussion suggested that these trait numbers correspond to traits listed in order (see Lil Nouns Playground). Where top selling traits are identified in this article, these traits' text descriptions were found by counting manually to the corresponding trait number on the Playground, and verified via the impressive traits database created by Flipside analyst Pinehearst.

Data Results

To broadly understand Lil Nouns sale activity, the chart below visualizes daily Lil Noun sales:

Overall, despite some outliers, most Lil Nouns that get sold immediately (within 24 hours) after their mint constitute profitable sales for the auction winner. As for what kinds of Lil Nouns are "hot", there are hardly any surefire preferences among buyers. The Lil Noun traits with the 'majority' of the fast sales on the secondary markets may lead by 1-2 sales at most, among a vastly bigger total of 2300+ NFTs currently minted in the Lil Nouns collection. Moreover, there have been many more Lil Noun mints than resales - the secondary Lil Noun market exists, but it is not quite yet prolific.

About

This analysis was created by catscatscode (Flipside, Twitter, catscatscode#3578 on Discord) on 21 June 2022 for Flipside Crypto's "Secondary Sales Activity" Lil Nouns bounty. This analysis represents the author's best effort at interpreting available data, but it is not financial advice.