Methodology

I divide this dashboard into four sections to compare the correlation of Optimism token price with swap parameters (for example, number of transactions, number of swapper users, swapped volume, etc.).

• Relation between swap transactions and $OP price
• Relation between swap volume and $OP price
• Relation between swappers and $OP price
• Relation between ETH price and $OP price

I used 3 different tables to find swap transactions. In fact, I collected the swap transactions of 3 DEXs and analyzed them. These exchanges include Uniswap, Sushiswap, and Velodrome.

Fortunately, the Sushiswap and Velodrome tables had the Easy Swap table (ez_swaps) and we can get the swaps very easily, but for the Uniswap table we should work with ORIGIN_FUNCTION_SIGNATURE and CONTRACT_ADDRESS and EVENT_INPUTS columns to provide swaps data.

For the last step, I joined these swaps data with $OP price data which provided from fact_hourly_token_prices table.

Note: For ease of viewing the values I have done my analysis based on the weekly time frame.

What is Optimism Layer-2?

Optimism is a layer 2 chain, meaning it functions on top of the Ethereum mainnet (layer 1). Transactions take place on Optimism, but the data about transactions get posted to mainnet where they are validated. It’s like driving on a less crowded side street while benefiting from the security of a highway.

The native token of Optimism

Optimism launched its $OP token on May 31. A total of 231,000 addresses were eligible to claim 214 million OP tokens for free (known as an “airdrop”). That accounts for 5% of the total 4.29 billion supply, meaning 95% of the supply has yet to hit the market.

Source:

Swaps Count vs. $OP Price

Swappers vs. $OP Price

Swaps Volume vs. $OP Price

Relation between swap transactions and $OP price

• As we see, on the first week of the token launch, the number of swaps from OP to other assets was about 2x of swap to OP. There were over 49k swaps from transactions in the first week.
• During the first 5 weeks, the number of swaps from $OP to other tokens was more than the number of swaps from other tokens to $OP token.
• Since the sixth week, the number of swaps to the $OP token has exceeded the number of swaps from the $OP token. Meanwhile, the price of optimism is starting to rise. With the price increase, more users are willing to buy and hold the Optimism token.

Relation between swap volume and $OP price

• In the first week, the volume of swaps from OP to other assets was over 46M $OP and it was about 2x of swap to OP. The net flow of swap to $OP was -22M $OP in the first week. Users sold their airdropped tokens.

• In the first 3 weeks, the net flow of swap (red line) to $OP was negative, but after that, the net flow was lower and it dropped below 1 million tokens per week (except Aug 8 week).

• After the 11th of July week, the $OP price started to increase and reached from $0.49 (ATL) to $1.8 (ATH) in this period.

• Exactly at the same time as this price increase, the swap volume started to increase for 3 weeks in a row, and on the 25th of July week, we had the highest volume swapped on both sides and they were around 80M $OP each (swap from and swap to).

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Relation between swappers and $OP price

• In the first week, the number of unique users who swapped their $OP tokens for other tokens was high (over 31k unique users), and there is a huge difference (almost 5x greater) in the number of users who swapped other tokens for $OP (6,680 unique users).
• After the first week, the number of users who swapped decreased drastically and we have seen a downward trend of 6 weeks. From the week of July 11 onwards, we have seen a slight increase in the number of swapping users, and this slight increase has continued for about 6 weeks.
• In only 3 weeks, the number of users who swapped other tokens for $OP token was more than the number of users who swapped $OP token for other tokens. (11th July, 19th Sep, and 26th Sep)

Conclusion

• In the first week, the number of swaps, the number of users who made swaps, and the volume of swaps from Optimism token to other tokens were more. This is because users sell their airdropped tokens for fear of its price going down.

  • The number of swaps from OP to other assets was about 2x of swap to OP. There were over 49k swaps from transactions in the first week.
  • The volume of swaps from OP to other assets was over 46M $OP and it was about 2x of swap to OP. The net flow of swap to $OP was -22M $OP in the first week.
  • The number of unique users who swapped their $OP tokens for other tokens was high (over 31k unique users), and there is a huge difference (almost 5x greater) in the number of users who swapped other tokens for $OP (6,680 unique users).

• First 5 weeks, the number of swaps from $OP to other tokens was more than the number of swaps from other tokens to $OP token.

• With the price increase, more users are willing to buy and hold the Optimism token.

• For the first 3 weeks, the net flow of swap to $OP was negative, but after that, the net flow was lower.

• After the 11th of July week, the $OP price started to increase and reached from $0.49 (ATL) to $1.8 (ATH) in this period. Exactly at the same time as this price increase, the swap volume started to increase for 3 weeks in a row, and on the 25th of July week, we had the highest volume swapped on both sides

• In only 3 weeks, the number of users who swapped other tokens for $OP token was more than the number of users who swapped $OP token for other tokens. (11th July, 19th Sep, and 26th Sep)

$ETH Price vs. $OP Price

Relation between ETH price and $OP price

As we can see, the price of the Optimism token as an Ethereum layer-2 token is correlated with the price of the Ethereum native token.