Optimism is an Ethereum Layer-2 (L2) solution centred on low cost and ease of use. It was first revealed in June 2019, and Optimism’s open mainnet was launched in December 2021. Since Optimism was designed to closely mirror Ethereum, developers can deploy existing contracts on the blockchain in a streamlined manner.

As a blockchain built on top of Ethereum Layer 1 (L1), Optimism uses Ethereum’s proof-of-work (PoW) consensus method to validate transactions – that is, until Ethereum transitions to a proof-of-sake [PoS] method, which is scheduled for the second half of 2022.

In this bounty, we were asked if we are optimistic or pessimistic about the future of the layer-2 chain known as Optimism.

I have selected Optimism, Arbitrum and Avalanche as L2 chains and made comparison in the:

• count of users,
• count of transactions,
• count of new users,
• volume of paid fee,
• Average fee per transaction
• success rate of transactions,
• TPS,
• count of sales on the secondary market
• count of users on the secondary market,
• count of collections and NFTs. \n

Success rate:

• Avalanche: It had the least success rate in most of the days among the other 2 chains. Its success rate decreased from April to mid of June, but then it improved and got better.
• Arbitrum: More than 95% of transactions in this chain had been confirmed in most of the days. Its success rate was more than Optimism in most of the days.
• Optimism: It was volatile until August and reached to its least level on June 13th(83% of transactions succeeded in that date), but after August, this parameter improved in total.

TPS:

• Avalanche: From mid of May, this parameter decreased and less count of transactions was done in a second on this chain. It had the highest TPS until Sep 1st.
• Arbitrum: It had a positive trend in total but improved sharply from Sep and the most count of transactions was submitted in each second on Sep 21st. After that date this factor decreased.
• Optimism: It had a volatile trend but had a positive trend in total. The same as Arbitrum, this factor decreased from Sep 21st.

From Sep 1st, Arbitrum had the highest TPS in all of the days.

In the above charts, you can see count of transactions and users on the top 10 projects on Optimism. You can see that both number of transactions and users had decreased from Sep, while these parameters had been growing from Jan 1st.

In the below charts, I have done a comparing analysis on the secondary marketplaces in Avalanche, Arbitrum and Optimism:

Avalanche, Arbitrum and Optimism NFT marketplaces in 2022 \n

Count of users on the NFT marketplace:

• Avalanche: In total, count of buyers and sellers had decreased during 2022. Between June to mid of July these two parameters grew, but then decreased again. During the last 30 days, both parameters was growing but number of sellers was more than count of buyers in the recent 30 days.
• Arbitrum: Count of buyers and sellers had been growing in an overall view, specially in the recent weeks it grew very fast. In most of the times, count of buyers and sellers on Arbitrum was more than Optimism.
• Optimism: Count of buyers and sellers charts was volatile, but had a positive trend in total. It had some spikes but from mid of Sep, both parameters increased sharply.

Before Sep, Avalanche had the highest count of buyers and sellers in most of the days.

Count of sales on the NFT marketplace:

• Avalanche: In total, count of sales had decreased during 2022. Between June to mid of July it grew, but then decreased again. From Oct 7th it grew again.
• Arbitrum: Count of sales had been growing in an overall view, specially in the recent weeks it grew very fast. In most of the times, count of sales on Arbitrum was more than Optimism.
• Optimism: Count of sales charts was volatile, but had a positive trend in total. It had some spikes but from mid of Sep, it increased sharply.

Before Sep, Avalanche had the highest count of sales in most of the day

In total, count of sales on Optimism and Arbitrum was very close to each other(OPtimism was more than Arbitrum) but number of sales on Avalanche was more than twice bigger than the other L2 chains.

Count of collections on the NFT marketplace:

• Avalanche: It had a very positive trend and had the highest count of collections in comparison with the other two chains in all the days(except 12 days)
• Arbitrum: It increased during the time.
• Optimism: Although it had a stable trend until April, but increased after that specially from Sep.

Count of NFTs on the NFT marketplace:

• Avalanche: It decreased during the time until mid of May, and then it changed in a stable trend.
• Arbitrum: It increased during the time, but increased sharply after mid of August.
• Optimism: Although it had a stable trend until April, but increased after that specially from Sep.

Conclusion:

Count of new users to Optimism was less than count of new users to Arbitrum and Avalanche in most of the days.

From Sep 6th, Optimism had the highest volume of fee in comparison with the other to chains, in most of the days.

TPS had a volatile trend but had a positive trend in total. The same as Arbitrum, this factor decreased from Sep 21st.

Success rate was volatile until August and reached to its least level on June 13th(83% of transactions succeeded in that date), but after August, this parameter improved in total.

both number of transactions and users on the top 10 projects on Optimism had decreased from Sep, while these parameters had been growing from Jan 1st.

Count of sales and buyers and sellers improved in total, plus number of NFTs and collections. Specially after Sep.

So, as count of new users and transactions had been decreased in last 45 days and count of users and transactions on the top 10 projects decreased too, we can say that Optimism popularity had ben decreased in comparison with before Sep.

But as the TPS and success rate had been improved, we can say that Optimisim is working on its network and try to improve it.

OPtimism have to work on the fee of the transactions and try to reduce it, the same as Arbitrum.

NFT marketplace was one of the good point of Optimism and still is popular between users and could attract more users by improving the platfrorm.

Link of tweet:

Count of transactions:

• Avalanche: Data is available from April 11th. Number of trxs was more than 0.8 M, but from May 12th, this number decreased sharply and was less than 0.2 Min most of the days after July.
• Arbitrum: It was stable to some extent, until August 28th. After that date, count of trxs increased sharply and was about 0.4 M in recent days.
• Optimism: It increased slowly from Jan 1st and reached to its highest level on Sep 21st. It decreased in the recent weeks.

Count of users:

• Avalanche: Data is available from April 11th. Number of users decreased sharply from April, but in recent days it increased sharply.
• Arbitrum: It had a positive trend in total, but in recent days it decreased sharply and got half in comparison with the last week.
• Optimism: It was stable until mid of April but then it increased and had big spikes too. It still have a positive trend.

Count of new users:

• Avalanche: Count of NEW users had a slow negative trend in total. But on Oct 14th a big number of new users(more than 102 K) joined this network
• Arbitrum: It had a total negative trend until mid of June, but after that it had a positive trend in total with some spikes in some days. It decreased in recent days.
• Optimism: In total it had a stable trend with some big spikes in some days.

==Count of new users to Optimism was less than count of new users to Arbitrum and Avalanche in most of the days.==

Daily amount of fee(USD):

• Avalanche: USD volume of earned fee decreased sharply from the date that data is available. It had a stable trend sicnce June and was less than 30 K in most of the days after June.
• Arbitrum: It was more than Optimism earned fee until Sep 6th, but after that date it decreased and was less than the other 2 chains in most of the days.
• Optimism: It was very volatile until mid of June. During mid of June to mid of July, it was in its lowest level but then it was volatile and changed between 4 to 60 K.

==From Sep 6th, Optimism had the highest volume of fee in comparison with the other to chains, in most of the days.==

Avg USD trx fee per transaction:

• Avalanche: Its highest level was 1.6 USD per trx. It decreased during the time. After mid of May, it was less than 0.16 USD in most of the days.
• Arbitrum: Avg fee of transactions decreased sharply. Its highest level was 4.3 USD on May 12th but it decresed and from Sep 1st, it was less than 0.0.05 USD in most of the days.
• Optimism: It was very high in the first months of the year. It even reached to 6 USD per trx on Jan 2nd, but then it decreased and reached to its lowest levels during mid of June to mid of July. After that date it was less than 0.2 USD in most of the days.

==From Sep 1st, Arbitrum had the least avg USD fee per transaction in all of the days, while before that it had the highest fee among other chains in most of the days.==