Question:

The price of Ethereum has sank in recent days - how does it compare to other tokens amid a general market downturn?

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Can you find evidence of any potential causes for ETH's struggle? Are there any other indicators that could help us predict whether/when it could recover?

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Methodology:

The focus of this dashboard will be on the current price of ETH and how it has performed with respect to other tokens like BTC and where is it headed?

To get the stats various tables like ethereum.core.fact_hourly_token_prices, fact_transactions, dex_swaps, nft_sales transactions and ethereum balance tables were used.

Summary:

We would be answering a variety of questions ranging from the price of ETH vs any other token vs BTC to the DEX swaps, NFT transactions and balance changes over time during the Bear market. In summary, we would be looking into the following charts:

• Daily Price Change for the past n days for the selected symbol
• Percent Change Daily
• Cumulative % Change in the price since the past n days
• % Change in price vs % change in volume for DEX
• Cumulative % Change in price vs % change in volume for DEX
• % Change in price vs % change in transactions for DEX
• Cumulative % Change in price vs % change in transactions for DEX
• % Change in price vs % change in volume for NFT
• Cumulative % Change in price vs % change in volume for NFT
• % Change in price vs % change in transactions for NFT
• Cumulative % Change in price vs % change in transactions for NFT
• Daily Net Balance Based on Number of Addresses
• Normalised Daily Net Balance Based on Number of Addresses
• Price Change Between WBTC & WETH Comparison for the last n days
• Cumulative Price Change Between WBTC & WETH Comparison for the last n days
• Conclusions

ETH Down Bad against other tokens?

Explanation & Insights:

• For ETH, we find that the price has been impacted badly in the past 60 days and is about 20% down in the past 60 days despite rising by about 20% at one point!
• Because of the FTX crash, the price crashed by more than 15% in a single day for ETH!

Explanation & Insights:

• We see that the price of ETH and BTC is highly correlated. That is, if the price of BTC rises, so does the price of ETH and vice versa (INDICATOR 1 )
• Now, if observed carefully, the price of ETH is a function of BTC’s price and it can be said that change in Price of ETH (PETH) is related with the change in price of BTC (PBTC)
• So, the following could be concluded:

PETH = x*(PBTC)
where x> 1 

Now, it was observed that whenever the price of BTC increases/decreases by a percent x, the price of ETH changes by a factor of more than 1.0x

The next question that comes to mind is that, is the price of ETH related to the balance holders?

Explanation & Insights:

• To the naked eye, it seems like there is no correlation between the price of ETH and the balance holding. But isn’t that surprising? On clicking the orange square, you find that while the total number of holders remained unchanged during the FTX crash but there was a surge in the number of holders during that period (INDICATOR 2 )
• Thus, whenever there is a high flow from tiny holders to whales , there could be a chance of drop in the price of ETH and it holds for ultra whales as well (1000+ ETH as balance)

The next question is activity related to the price of ETH?

Explanation & Insights:

• There seems to be an anti-correlation between the price and the number of transactions on ETH but, the relation changes when one shifts it by a day. That is, yes they are correlated but shifted by a day. (INDICATOR 3)

• If the price of ETH increases, the next day we find an increase in the number of transactions and vice versa

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Next, let’s view the scenario for NFTs and the price of ETH:

Explanation & Insights:

• While there’s a huge change in the amplitude of the transactions of NFTs as compared to the change in price of ETH, we find a similar correlation in the volume of NFTs as that of the transactions across the entire ecosystem. Although this parameter is not that strong an indicator as compared to the previous 3 (INDICATOR 4)

Next, let’s view the scenario for DEXes and the price of ETH:

Explanation & Insights:

• For the DEX swaps, we find the amplitude to be extremely high for both transactions and volumes!! Unfortunately, they do not hold a lot of correlation but we see a similar relation as that of the general transaction analysis (INDICATOR 5 )

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Conclusions:

• Yes, the price of ETH is dependent on:

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  • the price of other tokens

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  • it is a function of the price of BTC

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  • whenever there is a high flow from tiny holders to whales , there could be a chance of drop in the price of ETH and it holds for ultra whales as well (1000+ ETH as balance)

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  • If the price of ETH increases, the next day we find an increase in the number of transactions and vice versa

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  • While there’s a huge change in the amplitude of the transactions of NFTs as compared to the change in price of ETH, we find a similar correlation in the volume of NFTs as that of the transactions across the entire ecosystem. Although this parameter is not that strong an indicator as compared to the previous ones

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  • For the DEX swaps, we find the amplitude to be extremely high for both transactions and volumes!! Unfortunately, they do not hold a lot of correlation but we see a similar relation as that of the general transaction analysis