ETH Down Bad [Ethereum]
The price of Ethereum has sank in recent days - how does it compare to other tokens amid a general market downturn? Can you find evidence of any potential causes for ETH's struggle? Are there any other indicators that could help us predict whether/when it could recover?
- Daily variation of the ETH price shows that the price of ETH decreased from 1,580 on 7 Nov (a day before FTX/Alameda collapse) to 1,459 on 8 Nov 2022 (the day of FTX/Alameda collapse). After FTX/Alameda collapse this decrease in ETH price continued to about 1,227 on 9 Nov 2022. The ETH price shows a rather constant trend after FTX/Alameda collapse (from 9 Nov to 25 Nov 2022) with two exceptions on 21 Nov (1,120) and 22 Nov (1,109) that min ETH price is recorded on these two days.
- During the past month and after FTX/Alameda collapse (8 Nov 2022) ETH and BTC have lost 24.35% and 19.36% of their value, respectively.
- Among other tokens, SOL, ATOM, FLOW, and AAVE tokens, experienced the most decrease percentage after FTX/Alameda collapse (8 Nov 2022) by about 56.3%, 30.12%, 31.11%, and 31.11% respectively.
Summary
- During the past month and after FTX/Alameda collapse (8 Nov 2022) ETH and BTC have lost 24.35% and 19.36% of their value, respectively.
- Among other tokens, SOL, ATOM, FLOW, and AAVE tokens, experienced the most decrease percentage after FTX/Alameda collapse (8 Nov 2022) by about 56.3%, 30.12%, 31.11%, and 31.11% respectively.
- Daily variation of the ETH, BTC, and SOL prices shows similar decreasing trends after FTX/Alameda collapse (8 Nov 2022).
- After FTX/Alameda collapse (8 Nov 2022), the number of ‘swap from’ and ‘swap to’ transactions increased about 25% and 33%, respectively.
- Overall, the number of ‘swap to’ transactions and users increased after FTX/Alameda collapse.
- Overall, the number of ‘swap from’ transactions and users increased after FTX/Alameda collapse.
- Overall, the number of ETH transfers to CEX transactions and users increased after FTX/Alameda collapse.
- Overall, the number of ETH transfers from CEX transactions and users increased after FTX/Alameda collapse.
- Overall, the number of ETH staking deposits and depositors increased after FTX/Alameda collapse.
- Overall, the number of ETH liquid staking deposits and depositors increased after FTX/Alameda collapse.
- To draw a conclusion, it can be said that although the ETH price as well as the other tokens have sunk over the past month as a result of the FTX/Alameda research collapse, the activity of users in different terms such as swap, transfers, and staking is growing. In one word the recovery of the ETH network has been started and the reviewed data in this dashboard shows the growth and development of the ETH network in the soon future.
- The above bar charts (daily period) show that the daily number of ETH liquid staking deposits decreased significantly after FTX/Alameda collapse.
- The above bar charts (daily period) show that the daily number of ETH liquid staking depositors after FTX/Alameda collapse shows a rather bell like trend, firstly the trend of the ETH liquid staking depositors decreased on 8 Nov 2022 (the day of FTX/Alameda collapse). But after 8 Nov 2022, from 9 to 17 Nov 2022 this trend is increased significantly. Again after 17 Nov 2022, the trend is significantly decreasing to the present time. after FTX/Alameda collapse with two spikes on 11 and 23 Nov 2022 (139 and 289, respectively)
- The total number of ETH liquid staking deposits increased significantly after FTX/Alameda collapse (about 34.5K before FTX/Alameda collapse and about 50K after FTX/Alameda collapse, about 70% increase)
- The total number of ETH liquid staking depositors increased from about 3.2K before FTX/Alameda collapse to about 9.2K after FTX/Alameda collapse (about 35% increase)
- It can be concluded that overall, the number of ETH liquid staking deposits and depositors increased after FTX/Alameda collapse.
- This pie chart shows that among different ETH liquid staking platforms, Lido has the upper hand by far (79.26K, 99.8%).
Swap transaction-Before Collapse
Swap transaction-After Collapse
1. Introduction
1.2. Ethereum (ETH)
When Bitcoin was launched in 2009, it caught the interest of many people. One of which was Vitalik Buterin, a programmer who later co-founded Ethereum, with its crowdfunding done in 2014. This article takes a detailed look at Ethereum, its use cases, how to buy, and why you should opt for OriginStamp.
Ethereum is a decentralized blockchain-based software that has smart contract functionality. Ethereum is open source and used primarily to support the second-largest cryptocurrency in the world known as Ether. Ethereum enables the smart contracts and applications built on its blockchain to run smoothly without fraud, downtime, control, or any third-party interference. Ethereum is also a programming language that helps developers to create distributed applications. One of the major projects with Ethereum is Microsoft’s partnership with ConsenSys offering Ethereum Blockchain as a Service on Microsoft Azure to enable developers and enterprise clients to have a single click blockchain developer environment that is cloud-based. Ethereum split into two different blockchains in 2016 namely Ethereum, and Ethereum Classic. This was due to a hack earlier that year in which the hacker made away with $50 million Ether. The hacker took advantage of a third-party project flaw and exploited a DOA (a smart contract set originating from the Ethereum platform). Ethereum was already the second-largest digital currency in the market as of September 2019. Ethereum’s idea is to revamp the usage process of applications on the internet today. Today, many third-party intermediaries help us carry out the tasks we want to on the internet. As a result, essential data such as users’ financial data of various applications are stored on servers controlled by these third parties. This implies that the third parties are in control of the data and can do anything with and to the data without the user’s consent. Furthermore, it poses a considerable risk towards hacker attacks. []
1.2. Alameda research (FTX)
Alameda Research was a crypto hedge fund trading firm started by FTX exchange founder and former CEO Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) and Tara Mac Aulay in 2017. Bankman-Fried used various trading strategies to put Alameda on the map, including arbitrage trading, market-making, trading volatility, and yield farming. SBF started Alameda after leaving Jane Street Capital in 2017, where he traded at their ETF desk. Bankman-Fried made headlines in 2018 when it was reported that Alameda earned an estimated $20 million arbitrage trading the price differences of bitcoin on U.S. crypto exchanges when compared to Japanese crypto exchanges. In its simplest form, arbitrage trading involves buying a digital asset at one price on one crypto exchange and selling it for a higher price on another crypto exchange, profiting from the difference between the two prices. This trade is done over and over, as long as the price difference is large enough to realize a profit from the trade. Japan was notorious, at the time, for pricing bitcoin at a higher price when compared to prices of bitcoin in the U.S. Alameda was reported to have traded $25 million a day as part of this trade. On November 2, 2022, Coindesk reported insider information related to Alameda’s balance sheet of $14 billion. It was reported that most of the assets were in fact FTT, the native cryptocurrency of FTX, the cryptocurrency exchange started by Alameda’s Sam Bankman-Fried. Sam and FTX created FTT as a rewards mechanism for its traders. By buying and holding FTT, FTX users were rewarded with trading discounts and other perks. FTX controlled all aspects of the FTT cryptocurrency, and as FTT became more popular, its price increased and so did FTX and Alameda, as two of the largest holders of FTT within their companies. As word got out that Alameda and FTX had closer financial ties than originally thought, FTX customers started withdrawing their money en masse, totaling $5 billion in the first 3 days. Reports then emerged suggesting that SBF and other company executives moved $10 billion in customer funds from FTX to Alameda against the terms-of-service of FTX, in an effort to prop up Alameda and keep it from defaulting on loans it had taken out. FTX halted customer withdrawals as it didn’t have the funds to cover the withdrawal requests from so many users all at the same time. Alameda, similarly, saw its balance sheet decrease dramatically, and it couldn’t pay off the liabilities created by bad trades or investments it made in over 150 other crypto businesses. Alameda filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on November 17, 2020. The bankruptcy filing notes that Alameda has over $5 billion in liabilities that it owes to businesses and investors. The Alameda website was taken offline on November 9th, 2022. Two days later, Bankman-Friend announced that the company as a whole would be winding down. [https://www.babypips.com/crypto/glossary/alameda-researc]
2. Methodology
The data in this dashboard is obtained from the following tables:
ethereum.core.fact_hourly_token_prices
ethereum.core.fact_transactions
solana.core.fact_token_prices_hourly
osmosis.core.dim_prices
flow.core.fact_prices
ethereum.core.ez_dex_swaps
ethereum.core.ez_dex_swaps
ethereum.core.ez_eth_transfers
ethereum.core.dim_labels
Aim of this analysis:
This dashboard aims to investigate the effect of FTX/Alameda on the Ethereum network in terms of price, swap transactions, transfers, and staking state. Moreover, a comparison between ETH and other tokens' prices, especially BTC and SOL, has been carried out.
Important note: As far as the FTX/Alameda research collapsed on 8 Nov, the investigated period in this dashboard (during Nov 2022) has been divided into before FTX/Alameda collapse (before 8 Nov 2022) and after FTX/Alameda collapse (after 8 Nov 2022).
- Daily variation of the ETH, BTC, and SOL price shows similar decreasing trend after FTX/Alameda collapse (8 Nov 2022).
- It can be observed from the above charts (daily period) that the most number of the swap transactions are recorded on 8 (the day of FTX/Alameda collapse), 9, and 10 Nov 2022 (4.44M, 17.9M, 23.49M, respectively.)
- Before FTX/Alameda collapse (8 Nov 2022), the total number of ‘swap from’ and ‘swap to’ transactions are about 17.31M (82.3%), and 3.71 (17.7%), respectively.
- After FTX/Alameda collapse (8 Nov 2022), the total number of ‘swap from’ and ‘swap to’ transactions are about 78.47M (87.6%), and 11.15M (12.4%), respectively.
- It can be concluded that after FTX/Alameda collapse (8 Nov 2022), the number of ‘swap from’ and ‘swap to’ transactions increased about 25% and 33%, respectively.
- The above bar charts (daily period) show that the daily number of ‘swap to’ transactions and users, firstly increased on the 8 (the day of FTX/Alameda collapse), 9 and 10 Nov, but then this trend is significantly decreasing after 11 Nov 2022.
- The total number of ‘swap to’ transactions increased from 2.33M before FTX/Alameda collapse to about 11.5K after FTX/Alameda collapse (about 20% increase)
- The total number of ‘swap to’ users increased from about 151K before FTX/Alameda collapse to about 335K after FTX/Alameda collapse (about 42% increase)
- It can be concluded that overall, the number of ‘swap to’ transactions and users increased after FTX/Alameda collapse.
- The above bar charts (daily period) show that the daily number of ‘swap from’ transactions and users, firstly increased on the 8 (the day of FTX/Alameda collapse), 9 and 10 Nov, but then this trend is significantly decreasing after 11 Nov 2022.
- The total number of ‘swap from’ transactions increased from 10.26M before FTX/Alameda collapse to about 78M after FTX/Alameda collapse (about 13% increase)
- The total number of ‘swap from’ users increased from about 189K before FTX/Alameda collapse to about 410K after FTX/Alameda collapse (about 45% increase)
- It can be concluded that overall, the number of ‘swap from’ transactions and users increased after FTX/Alameda collapse.
- The above bar charts (daily period) show that the daily number of ETH transfer to CEX transactions increased significantly after FTX/Alameda collapse especially on the 8 (the day of FTX/Alameda collapse), 9 and 10 Nov. After 11 Nov 2022. this trend is rather fluctuating decreasing.
- The above bar charts (daily period) show that the daily number of ETH transfer to CEX users rather decreased after FTX/Alameda collapse. It is worth mentioning that a very significant increase in the number of ETH transfer to CEX users can be seen on 24 Nov.
- The total number of ETH transfer to CEX transactions increased from 1.6M before FTX/Alameda collapse to about 7.5M after FTX/Alameda collapse (about 20% increase)
- The total number of ETH transfer to CEX users increased from about 209K before FTX/Alameda collapse to about 458K after FTX/Alameda collapse (about 45% increase)
- It can be concluded that overall, the number of ETH transfer to CEX transactions and users increased after FTX/Alameda collapse.
- The above bar charts (daily period) show that the daily number of ETH transfer from CEX transactions and users increased significantly after FTX/Alameda collapse especially on the 8 (the day of FTX/Alameda collapse), 9 and 10 Nov. After 11 Nov 2022 this trend is rather fluctuating decreasing. It is worth mentioning that a very significant increase in the number of ETH transfer to CEX users can be seen after 21 Nov.
- The total number of ETH transfer from CEX transactions increased from about 2M before FTX/Alameda collapse to about 9M after FTX/Alameda collapse (about 22% increase)
- The total number of ETH transfer from CEX users increased from about 281K before FTX/Alameda collapse to about 950K after FTX/Alameda collapse (about 30% increase)
- It can be concluded that overall, the number of ETH transfer from CEX transactions and users increased after FTX/Alameda collapse.
- The above bar charts (daily period) show that the daily number of ETH staking deposits increased significantly after FTX/Alameda collapse especially on the 8 (the day of FTX/Alameda collapse), 11 and 13 Nov. After 13 Nov 2022 this trend is rather fluctuating.
- The above bar charts (daily period) show that the daily number of ETH staking depositors increased significantly after FTX/Alameda collapse with two spikes on 11 and 23 Nov 2022 (139 and 289, respectively)
- The total number of ETH staking deposits increased from about 31.5K before FTX/Alameda collapse to about 310K after FTX/Alameda collapse (about 10% increase)
- The total number of ETH ETH staking depositors increased from about 162 before FTX/Alameda collapse to about 1.5K after FTX/Alameda collapse (about 11% increase)
- It can be concluded that overall, the number of ETH staking deposits and depositors increased after FTX/Alameda collapse.
Supplementary Information
- Author: NSA2000
- Twitter of the Author: @NSA2000C
- Discord of the Author: NSA2000#5651
- Data from FlipsideCrypto
- Link to this dashboard’s tweet: