Ethereum - ETH Merge: Selling Event?

    Introduction

    • For ETH miners, was the Merge a selling event? Why or why not?
    • Let’s answer these questions in this dashboard.

    Note

    • Analysis time: Jul 1 - Sep 29, 2022.

    ETH from miner overtime

    • From Jul 1 to Sep 29, 2022, total ETH volume from miners only exceeded 20K on a handful of days. And most recent days were right around the merge, Sep 14 & Sep 15, 2022, before dropped to below 2K after the merge.

    Below to the end of this dashboard, I focused on miners who transferred ETH on Sep 14 & 15, 2022.

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    Miner balance

    • These miners are the miners who transferred ETH on Sep 14 & 15, 2022 (only 43 miners have records in table ethereum.core.ez_current_balances).
    • % Change = (Current / Before the merge - 1) * 100
    Balance typeBefore the mergeCurrent% Change
    Median1147-93.86%
    TP801920183-90.47%
    Max135258747-35.33%
    • As seen in the table above, median, TP80, & max balance has decreased 94%, 90%, & 35%.
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    Approach

    • I look at the trend of ETH from miners who produced block between Jul 1 and Sep 14, 2022. Then focus on miners who transferred ETH on Sep 14 & 15 which had volume spike.
    • I compare the miners current ETH balance vs average ETH balance before the merge (Jan 1 - Sep 13, 2022) to see how different of their current balance vs before the merge.
    • Then I look at swap & transfer to CEX volume of addresses which received ETH from miners since Sep 14, 2022.

    Top 5 destination of ETH from miners

    • Top 5 addresses received from 568 to 2.6K ETH from miners.
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    Swap & Transfer to CEX of ETH destination from miners

    • Since Sep 14, 2022, of 46K ETH received from miners, 1.5K has been swapped, 1.6K has been transferred to CEX.
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    Key highlights

    • From Jul 1 to Sep 29, 2022, total ETH volume from miners only exceeded 20K on a handful of days. And most recent days were right around the merge, Sep 14 & Sep 15, 2022, before dropped to below 2K after the merge.

    • Miners’ median, TP80, & max balance has decreased 94%, 90%, & 35%.

    • Since Sep 14, 2022, of 46K ETH received from miners, 1.5K has been swapped, 1.6K has been transferred to CEX.

    • Top 5 addresses received from 568 to 2.6K ETH from miners.

    Conclusion

    Miners increased ETH transfer out which caused 80% of miners’ balance drop roughly 90% right around the merge. After transferring ETH out, we can see part of ETH has been swapped and transferred to CEX to trade. → ==it appears that the merge is a selling event for the most recent active miners.==