Introduction

First OP swap happend in May 2022, in this dashboard, let’s examine the relationship between OP price and swap activity.

Note

Analysis time: May 31 - Oct 5, 2022.

Approach

To identify relationship between OP price and swap volume, swap count, & swapper count (if any), I will show price movement next to each of them.

After exploring OP swap activity, I found it can be break down and group into 4 swap types:

1. swap only from : all swaps in which OP was swapped for other tokens and sources of OP is the same with addresses execute swap transactions.
2. swap only to : all swaps in which other tokens was swapped for OP and destinations of OP is the same with addresses execute swap transactions.
3. swap both from and to : all swaps in which OP was swapped for other tokens and other tokens was swapped for OP and sources and destinations of OP are the same with addresses execute swap transactions.
4. swap other : all swaps not in 3 types above, might be inner transaction of other event types such as add/remove liquidity.

Structure

• Price & swap activity
• Swap activity breakdown
• Price & swap type activity
• Price & swapper
• Key highlights
• Conclusion

Price & swap activity

Highlights

Peak is the highest point of a big up trend before a big down trend.

On the right charts, I compare OP price movement with OP swap $ volume, swap volume, swap count, & swapper count.

• Correlations between price and swap $ volume, volume, swap count are quite similar and higher than correlation between price and swapper count.
• To pick the most correlation, it is price and swap count as swap count movement follow price movement the most.
• Peaks of price and swap $ volume, volume, swap count are close to each other. And the latters’ peaks always happen before price’s peaks.

Highlights

• Though swap other count dominates swap activity, in early days it is not as correlated to price as the other 3 swap types. In early days, price dropped significantly but swap other count didn’t.
• Overall, price and swap only to count correlated the most among 4 swap types activity.

Swap activity breakdown

Price & swap type activity

Let’s repeat it here, there are 4 types of OP swap:

1. swap only from : all swaps in which OP was swapped for other tokens and sources of OP is the same with addresses execute swap transactions.
2. swap only to : all swaps in which other tokens was swapped for OP and destinations of OP is the same with addresses execute swap transactions.
3. swap both from and to : all swaps in which OP was swapped for other tokens and other tokens was swapped for OP and sources and destinations of OP are the same with addresses execute swap transactions.
4. swap other : all swaps not in 3 types above, might be inner transaction of other event types such as add/remove liquidity.

Highlights

• On swap count distribution, swap other has happened the most with 52.4%, following by swap only from (25%), swap only to (22.5%), & swap both from and to is very small.
• The distribution of swap volume and swap $ volume are similar with swap count. The only difference is in swap $ volume, swap only to is slightly more dominant than swap only from .
• Swap only from dominated in early days of OP swap activity, then drop significantly and replaced by swap other.
• Swap count first peaked on Jun 1, 2022 with >50K transactions, second peaked (the highest one) on Jul 29, 2022 with >70K transactions.

Key highlights

• Price & swap activity
  • Correlations between price and swap $ volume, volume, swap count are quite similar and higher than correlation between price and swapper count.
  • ==To pick the most correlation, it is price and swap count as swap count movement follow price movement the most.==
  • ==Peaks of price and swap $ volume, volume, swap count are close to each other. And the latters’ peaks always happen before price’s peaks.==
• Swap activity breakdown
  • On swap count distribution, swap other has happened the most with 52.4%, following by swap only from (25%), swap only to (22.5%), & swap both from and to is very small.
  • The distribution of swap volume and swap $ volume are similar with swap count. The only difference is in swap $ volume, swap only to is slightly more dominant than swap only from .
  • Swap only from dominated in early days of OP swap activity, then drop significantly and replaced by swap other.
  • Swap count first peaked on Jun 1, 2022 with >50K transactions, second peaked (the highest one) on Jul 29, 2022 with >70K transactions.
• Price & swap type activity
  • ==Though== swap other ==count dominates swap activity, in early days it is not as correlated to price as the other 3 swap types. In early days, price dropped significantly but== swap other ==count didn’t.==
  • ==Overall, price and== swap only to ==count correlated the most among 4 swap types activity.==
• Price & swapper
  • Daily swap volume per swapper is very skew as average values are much bigger than TP75 values.
  • The lowest max value is 345K OP per swapper.
  • Jul & Aug 2022 saw the most highest peak in max & average values.
  • ==The main reason of low correlated between price & swapper count is large swap volume per swapper (> 300K) in each peak periods such as early Jun, late Jul 2022, account for 68% - 89% in daily swap volume, while account for < 1% in daily swapper count.==

Conclusion

Among swap metrics, OP price correlated the most to swap count. Among 4 types of swap, OP price correlated the most to swap on to type. And the main reason of low correlated between price & swapper count is large swap volume per swapper (> 300K) in each peak periods such as early Jun, late Jul 2022, account for 68% - 89% in daily swap volume, while account for < 1% in daily swapper count.

Price & swapper

Why did price, swap activity move so much but not swapper count in Jul & Aug 2022? Let’s find out.

Highlights

TP is short of percentile. TP75 of a population means 75% of the population is below or at the value.

• Daily swap volume per swapper is very skew as average values are much bigger than TP75 values.
• The lowest max value is 345K OP per swapper.
• Jul & Aug 2022 saw the most highest peak in max & average values.

Looking at the bottom 2/3 area charts, we can see why price, swap volume peaked, and not swapper count.

• The main reason is large swap volume per swapper (> 300K) in each peak periods such as early Jun, late Jul 2022, account for 68% - 89% in daily swap volume, while account for < 1% in daily swapper count.