Terra: Anchor Repayments
This dashboard goes through loans and repayments on Anchor. It tries to look at trends on borrowing and repayments
To conclude let's summarise some of our key findings from this dashboard:
- We looked at patterns in borrowing and repayment behaviour of users.
- We saw that there was about 194 million in outstanding loans on Anchor.
- We looked at repayment, liquidation and borrowing behaviour on Anchor during the crash in May.
- We also figured out that smart money moved in to take loansvon Anchor right after many people were liquidated on the 10th of May to take advantage of high APYs.
As we can see the biggest wave of repayments happens at the point of max volatility for LUNA and then tends to subside with borrowing taking over as LUNA's price start recovering. We had postulated earlier that this is what happened as smart money came in to take advantage of high APYs during the unrest to be able to earn more on loans and it seems like we were right!
As we'd expect repayments on Anchor far-outweighed borrows but a large amount of borrows is something I am surely going to look into soon. Moreover, we see over 3 million in liquidations in the week of the crash in May. This number is an order of magnitude off of this article by Stanford from Mirror: https://medium.com/terra-money/indiscreet-borrowing-892d30c79eaf but I know his numbers aren't correct since he mentions 660k bLUNA being liquidated and assuming a price of $5 per bLUNA given the discount, slippage in the pool etc we will get a number that looks a lot like mine than Stanford's. Moreover, his numbers are probably just wrong by a decimal point which is a completely understandable.
To finish off this dashboard we will look at borrowing and repayments on anchor at an hourly cadence on the 19th of May to figure out what exactly happened:
So about 11.1 million in borrowed USD has had its collateral liquidated on Anchor. Which puts the outstanding loan amount to about 194 million (this is about 5% within the actual value we see on Anchor's dashboard!).
Next, let's bring a lot of this together by computing liquidation on each day along with borrows and repayment in a pretty graph:
Just looking at total loans and repayments (ignoring liquidations) it looks like there are about 205 million in outstanding loans on Anchor.
But let's try to compute this number more accurately, to do this we use the bid submitted by the liquidator, the premium amount and divide that by 2 (assuming collateral is at 200% of borrowed value when liquidation happens). The exact formula we use is:
(bid / (1 - premium_rate)) / 2
Here's the total amount of money that has been liquidated since Anchor's inception:
A lot of loans were also paid off between the 19th and 23rd of May due to high volatility and fears of liquidation. Ever since then fewer loans have been paid off since price action hasn't given people reasons to repay their loans moreover, the high ANC distribution APY makes loans on Anchor very lucrative. We do see loans being repaid recently since the APYs have gone down due to LUNA's price increasing and people finally feeling more comfortable taking loans. Lastly, let's take a look at total loans on Anchor:
As expected there was lots of borrowing on the first day of Anchor due to the high APYs on Anchor token distribution and overall excitement around the project. Interestingly, the next peak we see is during May 19th when the price of LUNA fell a lot causing a lot of borrowers to get liquidated. New borrowers obviously saw this as an opportunity to earn higher APYs as there was less borrowing pressure. Pretty smart if you ask me! Next, let's look at repayments on Anchor:
Let's start off by looking at the borrowing and repayment behaviour over the last 4-5 months before looking into more detailed data. First here are charts representing the borrowing behaviour of users on a daily, weekly and monthly basis: