Questions

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Are you optimistic or pessimistic about the future of the layer-2 chain known as Optimism? How do you think it will fare going forward compared to other L2s?

Make your case with Flipside data. Include at least three visualizations in your submission, and note any particularly interesting trend our outliers you see.

BONUS: Post your dashboard on Twitter and tag @flipsidecrypto and any relevant accounts!

This dashboard has been tweeted here

Method

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We analyze situation of Optimism by using 3 following matrices

1.) Transactions (only successful)

• We compare number of transactions and number of users between L2 chains

• Timespan is from 2022-01-01 until now

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2.) Bridge Volume

• We compare Bridge Count and Bridge Volume from L1 to L2 chains via Native and Hop protocol

• Timespan is from 2022-01-01 until now

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3.) NFT Sales

• We compare Sale Count, Buyers, and Volume between Optimism, Ethereum, Flow, and Algorand

• Timespan is from 2022-04-20 (because data of Flow NFT starts on that day) until now,

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Deeper details are presented in the main section

Transactions

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We acquire transaction data from fact_transactions table from each L2 chain

We plot Total Transactions and Users Comparison graph on the right, we found that

• Polygon has highest total number of transactions, with 791M Tx, Ethereum is the runner-up, with 319M Tx

• While other L2 chains has similarly low number of transactions with around 30M Tx

• In daily basis as shown in below graph, Polygon and Ethereum have majority fraction overtime, while Optimism is gaining fraction overtime very slowly

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In term of number of users

• Ethereum has highest total number of users, with 110M , Polygon is the runner-up, with 84M Tx
• Followed by Arbitrum, Optimism, and Gnosis with 4.3M, 3.1M, and 1.6M users consecutively

NFT Sales

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Since there is no NFT sale table in other L2 chains, we manage to compare with other chains that have popular NFT marketplace

So we can compare competitiveness of Optimism NFT sale over other chains

We plot comparison of total Sales, Buyers, and Volume on the right

• Ethereum has outstandingly high total sale volume, with 12.11B USD, while the runner-up, Solana, is 0.99B USD
• Optimism is the lowest, with 4.83M USD
• Optimism also has lowest Sale Count, with 187k, while Ethereum has 13M
• Optimism has nearly lowest Buyers, with 96k users, win only Algorand, with 81k users

In daily basis

• Ethereum, Solana and Flow are majority in Sale count and Buyers
• Ethereum is only majority in Sale Volume
• Optimism has very low fraction in all terms, but it is gaining little more fraction recently

Bridge Volume

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We find Bridge Count and Bridge Volume of L1 to L2s since 2022-01-01

• Polygon has highest Bridge count and Volume, with 750k Tx and 11.4B USD
• Arbitrum is runner-up, with 456k Tx and 3.4B USD
• Optimism is the 3rd, with 107k and 1.8B USD
• Gnosis is the last, with 2068 Tx and 22M USD

In weekly basis,

• Optimism has a good trend of gaining fraction over time among other L2 chains, in term of both Bridge Count and Volume

Conclusions

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1.) Transactions

• Compared to other L2 chains, Optimism has number of Tx similar to Gnosis and Arbitrum (around 30M Tx), but very is low compared to Polygon (791M Tx)

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2.) Bridge Volume

• Compare with Gnosis, Arbitrum, and Polygon, Optimism wins only Gnosis

• Polygon has highest Bridge count and Volume, with 750k Tx and 11.4B USD

• Optimism is the 3rd, with 107k and 1.8B USD

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3.) NFT Sales

• Optimism has very low fraction of NFT sales, Volume, and Buyers compared to large majority like Ethereum, Solana, and Flow
• Personally, Even Optimism fraction is increasing recently, It is still difficult for Optimism to gain market share over these 3 chains further, except it launches new interesting NFT project that is unique and valuable

Summary

• For me, I am pessimistic about future of Optimism, since it does not have identical strength, judging from those 3 matrices that Optimism does not stand out among other chains
• However, I can notice a little hope from Bridge Volume and NFT sale matrix, since it is gaining higher fraction in past months

Introduction

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What is L2? source

Layer 2 refers to a secondary framework or protocol that is built on top of an existing blockchain system. The main goal of these protocols is to solve the transaction speed and scaling difficulties that are being faced by the major cryptocurrency networks.

What is Optimism? source

Optimism is a fast, stable, and scalable L2 blockchain built by Ethereum developers, for Ethereum developers. Built as a minimal extension to existing Ethereum software, Optimism’s EVM-equivalent architecture scales your Ethereum apps without surprises. If it works on Ethereum, it works on Optimism at a fraction of the cost.

What is Polygon? source

Polygon is a “layer two” or “sidechain” scaling solution that runs alongside the Ethereum blockchain — allowing for speedy transactions and low fees.

What is Gnosis? source

Gnosis is an open-source, decentralized prediction market built on the Ethereum blockchain. Users are able to create markets where they can speculate on any event or arbitrary outcome. 

By using the Ethereum Protocol, Gnosis is able to guarantee a secure and transparent ecosystem. The Gnosis protocol aims to shift the paradigm by providing the world’s most efficient forecasting tool and setting a global standard for prediction markets.

What is Arbitrum? source

Arbitrum is a layer 2 solution designed to improve the capabilities of Ethereum smart contracts — boosting their speed and scalability, while adding in additional privacy features to boot.