Questions

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Thales is a protocol that allows for the creation of peer-to-peer parimutuel markets that anyone can join. A Parimutuel Market is a market where the collateral is locked in a pool and the final payout to participants is not determined until after the market-settling event finalizes. There are several types of markets, including Up and Down markets, ranged markets, exotic markets, and Overtime Markets.

Overtime markets is a fully on-chain sports AMM with Chainlink sport feeds, allowing users to bet on Soccer, Football, MMA, and Baseball. For this bounty we will be focused on the Overtime volume on Optimism. Single tx example: 

For more information on Thales and Overtime Markets, see  & https://overtimemarkets.xyz/#/markets 

Identify the 5 most profitable traders on Overtime Markets in the last two weeks. How much has each wallet won by sport?

Approach

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We get lists of games from the Tx generating the games from optimism.core.fact_event_logs table where

topics[0] = '0x889e2060e46779287c2fcbf489c195ef20f5b44a74e3dcb58d491ae073c1370f'.

We identify sport type of games by tags number (9001 - 9016)

Then we get reward payout information from the table optimism.core.fact_token_transfers where contract_address = '0x8c6f28f2f1a3c87f0f938b96d27520d9751ec8d9' and game is in the list of sport games above

Now we got addresses receiving reward. Then, we join total bet amount of users from the table optimism.core.fact_transactions where

to_address = '0x170a5714112daeff20e798b6e92e25b86ea603c1' and origin_function_signature in ('0x8875eb84', '0x6cc5a6ff', '0x9f916c9f', '0xec933f83') (all bet functions)

We can now find amount of profit and user addresses

Note that the data is from 2022-08-11 to 2022-08-24

Conclusions

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5 most profitable traders are shown in the right graphs

• 0xebbefa85adb58ae1c44a6db83d3b52315d4aea11 (User 1) with 9,238 USD profit
• 0xbf3cbc3efdfa389bcacdbadc79d6349b81b2593e (User 2) with 8,256 USD profit
• 0x4cc423d28183e05fbc5c70d1ae3424de4c4aacff(User 3) with 6,615 USD profit
• 0x259e094902fd1f5863ede0b3000b97ba93c42e83(User 4) with 5,805 USD profit
• 0xb4079f1e529309eff78f634cb1a82397547e9d30(User 5) with 5,737 USD profit

All of 5 Users won from only one sport

• User 1, 3, and 4 won from Baseball
  • User 1 and 4 won by 1 game, User 3 won by 2 games
• User 2 and 5 won from MMA
  • User 2 won for 1 game, User 5 won for 3 games

Most profitable traders don’t bet in variety kind of sports. They just focus in just 1 or 2 that they are good at.

And they bet in very few game(s) that they find opportunity of big win.

5 most profitable traders

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5 most profitable traders are shown in the right graphs

• 0xebbefa85adb58ae1c44a6db83d3b52315d4aea11 (User 1) with 9,238 USD profit
• 0xbf3cbc3efdfa389bcacdbadc79d6349b81b2593e (User 2) with 8,256 USD profit
• 0x4cc423d28183e05fbc5c70d1ae3424de4c4aacff(User 3) with 6,615 USD profit
• 0x259e094902fd1f5863ede0b3000b97ba93c42e83(User 4) with 5,805 USD profit
• 0xb4079f1e529309eff78f634cb1a82397547e9d30(User 5) with 5,737 USD profit

All of 5 Users won from only one sport

• User 1, 3, and 4 won from Baseball
  • User 1 and 4 won by 1 game, User 3 won by 2 games
• User 2 and 5 won from MMA
  • User 2 won for 1 game, User 5 won for 3 games

All 5 Users bet in one sport, except User 5

• User 1 bet in Baseball for 1 games, won 1
• User 2 bet in MMA for 1 game, won 1
• User 3 bet in Baseball for 2 games, won 2
• User 4 bet in Baseball for 1 games, won 1
• User 5 bet in MMA for 3 games, in Baseball for 2 games, and won 3 games from MMA

Users’ bet in detail

User 1

• Bet in 0xaffe0fb0215ec1a66b30559f906dcde62ac22aff (Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees)
  • Bet for 8.26k USD, and won 17.5k USD

User 2

• Bet in 0xbc70b2b4aa4b2660618734184675a0ed2c8f96ee (Leon Edwards vs Kamaru Usman)
  • Bet for 2.8k USD, and won 11.0k USD

User 3

• Bet in 0x00f1e70e965f22195c2f14cf4ba03c038c6f9e12 (Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins)
  • Bet for 510 USD, and won 1,000 USD
• Bet in 0xf41a1ee8b4c1d7fdc855c2ec54d6404c133b9a97 (Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs)
  • Bet for 4.87k USD, and won 11k USD

User 4

• Bet in 0x540cbd2e5653ee49ed9b3c77567043c71e316391 (Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins)
  • Bet for 4.36k USD, and won 10.16k USD

User 5

• Bet in 0xbdaa75303bbb190364e2cc3164469577deb748d4 (Jesus Santos Aguilar vs Erisson Fereira da Silva)
  • Bet for 2.49k USD, and won 7.28k USD
• Bet in 0x832fa07b9072d85bdc48ceb31e840592a4d3b383 (Eduardo Neves vs Mick Parkin)
  • Bet for 1.49k USD, and won 4.1k USD
• Bet in 0x571c9e7eba6e207defae729d25d3fa02c11032da (Denis Gomes vs Rayanne Amanda)
  • Bet for 2.25k USD, and won 3.2k USD
• Bet in 0x3ddf942a0e6063727c5e69189953e1c3fe19b5cd (Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants )
  • Bet for 0.49k USD, and lost
• Bet in 0xc1fe238a1c94d88b10de1a9e2d39e69ef8a517b4 (Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers)
  • Bet for 2.11k USD, and lost