Try Quests to earn SOLGroundhog Day
Question:
It’s been a harsh few months of winter in the crypto market, with token prices falling hard and once-stable companies and organizations reducing workforces or even vanishing overnight. With Coinbase announcing another layoff of nearly 20% of employees, some might be feeling like Bill Murray in Groundhog Day, forced to relive events over and over again.
With that in mind, let’s turn to our friend the groundhog for an early crypto-winter prediction: are we nearly through to spring, or will winter’s cold snap continue on even longer? Back your assertion by creating a dashboard with on-chain data that supports your arguments in favor of either a continued downturn in the space or a soon-to-come rally.
Overview of analysis:
In this investigation, two major blockchains have been analyzed and trend of crypto market has been predicted through various parts like:
- Price investigation (BTC, ETH and SOL)
- Ethereum blockchain deep analysis
- Solana blockchain deep analysis
The detailed metrics of these parts have been introduced in the methodology section and according to examining these metrics and general trend of crypto market, the final conclusion has been drawn.
Methodology:
The data provided by Flipside has been used to handle this analysis.
This following steps have been used to handle this investigation:
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Price analysis
- Metrics→
- Over time price
- Total price drop in %
- Metrics→
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Detailed analysis on blockchains (Solana and Ethereum)
- Metrics→
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Count of transaction
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Active wallets
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Swap activity→ Count of swaps, unique swappers and volume of swaps in USD
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Inflow/outflow volume and Net flow into CEXs
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Distinct senders and receivers onto CEXs
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- Metrics→
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The time period of this analysis is considered since May 9, 2022 until current date and this date coincided with the Terra network collapse and it had huge effect on general crypto market.
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Draw conclusion by aggregating outcomes of previous parts
About winter of crypto market:
Now that we are in the early days of 2023, for many, this month is still worth looking for trading opportunities, and many cryptocurrency activists are looking to profit in the last days of 2022. From the point of view of many activists, the state of the digital currency market is not in a good state; Because many cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin and Ethereum, are now operating at a price of about a third of their peak price, and their recent extreme fluctuations have made the forecasting process more difficult for everyone. The currency market saw a tremendous increase in the price of each of its cryptocurrencies in 2021; But 2022 was not a good year for the activists in this field, from there the prices suddenly broke. According to the analysis of investors and analysts, the last month of 2022 may still not be able to meet the needs of digital currency market users in terms of receiving high profits and observing bullish positions, and the price of digital currencies is predicted to be in a decreasing or stable trend. be included in the current rate; But it seems that with the laws that are being enacted by the governments, in the long term and after 2022, we will see the growth of the market and the price of cryptocurrencies.
Findings:
This section is used to represent the detailed analysis on Ethereum network:
- The count of transactions on Ethereum network since May 9, 2022 has remained on its consistent level.
- The active users on Ethereum has been increased over time and the highest count of active wallets occurred on second week of December 2022.
- The ETH value of transactions on Ethereum network has decreased with a gentle trend.
- The 7-day moving average ETH value of transactions experienced huge drop over time as can be seen.
Findings:
The first part indicates the price investigation of SOL, BTC and ETH as can be seen:
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The reason of selecting these tokens are:
- BTC→ The leader of market
- ETH→ Ethereum is one of the largest and most important blockchain networks in the field of digital currency. This network is an important platform for building decentralized applications.
- SOL→ Third generation blockchains that solved many of blockchains problems with their innovations
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According to the outcomes, the highest price drop since the start point of this analysis belong to SOL.
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The overall view of prices for SOL, BTC and ETH reveal the decreasing trend of price and validate the winter of crypto market!
Findings:
The rest of outcomes on Ethereum are as below:
- The count of swaps on Ethereum increased over time. However, the count of unique swappers on Ethereum has been decreased with gentle slope.
- The USD volume of swaps on Ethereum has been decreased over time.
- The net USD flow into the CEXs on Ethereum was negative most of the time and that means people sent their assets outflow from CEXs. Also, the highest net USD flow into CEXs happened on second week of November 2022.
Conclusion and personal prediction:
- In order to have a better prediction about the price of digital currencies in 2023, it is better to take a look at the past. It is clear that Bitcoin, as the king of digital currencies, determines the direction of the cryptocurrency market; So, by finding the movement trends of Bitcoin, we can get a good insight into the whole market.
- As the life of crypto market increases and it is more accepted among small and large users, the impact of crypto market on macroeconomic factors such as inflation, interest rates, war and insecurity increases. In fact, the higher the level of risk at the macroeconomic level, the larger investors prefer to keep their capital in safe assets, for this reason liquidity will leave the market of Bitcoin and other digital currencies.
- Cryptocurrencies are also subject to hacks and future regulations, which may affect their overall value. Also, The U.S. is still in the midst of deciding whether cryptocurrencies are securities, commodities or something else entirely.
- From the point of view of many investors, after passing through the challenging year of 2022, 2023 can be a good opportunity to predict the price of digital currencies and examine investment opportunities. According to many analysts, 2023 is the year of the beginning of changes in the price of digital currencies and the beginning of the upward process of many of them, especially Bitcoin; Since J.P. Morgan, the Wall Street banking giant, according to Global Markets Strategy reports, in 2023 there will be regulations in the world of digital currency that will bring digital financial markets closer to traditional financial markets. . Regarding the fate of the Luna currency as well as the FTX exchange, the US government is trying to reduce concerns about the price of cryptocurrencies by regulating many parts of this market. Many sites related to the analysis and prediction of the price of digital currencies saw the year 2023 as fruitful for the currency public.
Findings:
The rest of outcomes on Solana are as below:
- The count of swaps on Solana has been greatly reduced over time. َAlso, the count of unique swappers on Solana has been decreased, too.
- The USD volume of swaps on Solana has been reduced over time.
- The net USD flow into the CEXs on Solana was negative most of the time and that means people sent their assets outflow from CEXs. Also, the highest net USD flow form CEXs happened on third week of November 2022.
Findings:
This section is used to represent the detailed analysis on Solana network:
- The count of transactions on Solana network over the past month and has remained on its consistent level.
- The active users on Ethereum has been increased over time and the highest count of active wallets occurred on January 12, 2023.
- The highest volume of paid fee on Solana network happened on January 6, 2023 over the past month.
Author:
Credited by MZG
Discord handle: m.zamani#0361
Twitter handle: @GargariZamani
