Introduction

In this analytics i went through Overtime Markets that built on thales and analyzed the top traders on overtime markets and actually what they do in overtime markets.

I analyzed 5 metrics from profitable traders:

• Top 10 Traders by Volume
• Top 10 Gainers and Losers( Profit and loss )
• Top 5 Profitable Traders on Overtime Markets by Sports
• Win Rate of Profitable Traders
• Top Games and Sports with most Profit

I analyzed all these metrics since the beginning of the year (2022-01-01)

What is Overtime Markets?

Overtime markets is a fully on-chain sports AMM with Chainlink sport feeds, allowing users to bet on Soccer, Football, MMA, and Baseball.Users can "position" on the outcome of sports matches and cash out any winnings ALL ON-CHAIN.

What is Thales Market?

Thales is a decentralized protocol that allows users to take part in peer-to-peer Parimutuel Markets on Optimism and Polygon. The simple but powerful smart contracts at the foundation of Thales Market allow you to participate in markets for different crypto assets, but that's just the beginning. Thales protocol continues to innovate by offering community based games like Thales Royale and more advanced trading products like Ranged Markets.

Methodology

For this analytics i used optimism tables from flipside and gathered all the data since the beginning of the year.

I used optimism.core.fact_event_logs,optimism.core.fact_transactions,optimism.core.fact_token_transfers,optimism.core.fact_hourly_token_prices,optimism.core.dim_contracts tables and used 0x170a5714112daEfF20E798B6e92e25B86Ea603C1 as Overtime Markets Contract address

All stats are from optimism tables and from beginning of the year

Top 10 Traders by Volume

• I used optimism.core.fact_event_logs table for this part
• i used 0x170a5714112daeff20e798b6e92e25b86ea603c1 as Overtime Markets contract and 0x8c6f28f2f1a3c87f0f938b96d27520d9751ec8d9 as synth (sUSD) contract address to gather the data that i wanted

• The wallet with 0xf68d2c2ea6156e7faf7982335b7d0be57502b14a address has the highest volume in Overtime Markets than other wallets since the beginning of the year(10.9K)

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• The average volume of all top 10 wallets are almost the same and their volume is close to each other

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• The lowest volume is for 0x138a87c80d1659aee5e729221ca4872f51b2937d wallet address with 3.7K and formed 5.26% from the rest of them

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• 2 addresses have almost the same volume:

  0x7c5eda97b57939fb60630b106c708782f34149bb

  0xb4079f1e529309eff78f634cb1a82397547e9d30

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Top 10 Gainers and Losers( Profit and loss )

• I used optimism.core.fact_token_transfers and also optimism.core.dim_contracts for gathering the contracts that i needed
• I show top 10 wallets with most profits and most losses in bar charts

• The biggest gainer was 0x1e65e796a3af908542ffedefc705f9db241dac55 since the beginning of the year with 4.8K

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• 2 Wallets were the lowest gainers and their gains are almost the same with 1.2K:

  0xce911f6af2bb8a9591a806452d95694f0a059d62 and

  0xf40439c2c704e6338653f50c14c73a7e1a3cf02e

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• These 2 wallets are also the same with amount of gains(3.4K):

  0xaa7fd3f2f8beec3856e1cca2cee9e8cfd6c30eb6 and

  0xfb15339d187a76af62698f73d700e1f8536f03bd

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• 0xaffe0fb0215ec1a66b30559f906dcde62ac22aff is the highest loser with 17.5k loss

• The overall of losses is more than gains that shows users are mostly loses their bets instead of winning

Top 5 Profitable Traders on Overtime Markets by Sports since the beginning of the year

Win Rate of Profitable Traders

• I used optimism.core.fact_token_transfers and optimism.core.dim_contracts for analyzing this part

• Number of losses is so much more than number of wins
• As i said in the previous part this shows that users are mostly losing their money and bets

Top Games and Sports with most Profit

• Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins, users on this game made the most profits out of it and it looks like they knew that what will be the result of that baseball match
• Users are making much more profits in baseball than soccer and it seems like they can predict baseball games more easily than football games

Conclusion

• Top 10 wallets volume was close to each other
• Wallets or users are mostly losing than winning
• Wallets or users are making losses more than profits
• Baseball is more popular than soccer in overtime markets or i can say baseball matches are easier to predict and place bets than soccer matches

This article written by Sbhn_NP with Flipside Data on Aug 25 2022

Credit to Mostafa